As middle class Pakistanis who battled the military regime to re-establish democracy bask in the afterglow of their success, for a cornered Pervez Musharraf, the die is cast. Before the election results he had declared that he would have no problem working with whoever the people chose to be in power. The tsunami like tide of popular reaction against him has ensured that the problem in fact is the newly elected Parliament - the two mainstream parties who together have reduced Musharraf's PML(Q) to a hopeless minority and do not want to work with him. The next 15 days are likely to be spent in bringing home to an embattled Musharraf that it will be better for him to quit gracefully and let the new Parliament work out the country's future.

This is for the first time in Pakistan's recent history that a democratic revolt from the people has forced the military dictatorship to transfer power. Musharraf's decline started from the day he sought to change the judges in the country's apex court. He probably did not expect that the sacked chief justice would strike back by campaigning for democracy, or that the entire legal fraternity would rise up in revolt. That in fact provided the signal to the entire middle class, and then the political parties jumped onto the popular bandwagon. Musharraf went on the back foot, fighting to contain the popular movement, with his western backers urging him to compromise. After that, with the government becoming increasingly unpopular, the Army that backed it started moving away from supporting Musharraf to the hilt.

Most analysts outside Pakistan have interpreted the rise of the moderate middle class in the country as a blow to the extremists and terrorists and other jihadis. But more knowledgeable people are sceptical. The jihadis themselves have challenged this belief by getting a top general killed through suicide bombing right in the heart of the Army establishment in Rawalpindi. True, the extremist religious parties have managed to get only five seats in the new National Assembly against the 52 they had in the outgoing one, but this may only be a superficial reading of the result. We should factor into this the low turnout of 30 per cent - which means the jihadis had achieved a measure of success in their call of boycotting the polls, with most of the lower classes staying away. And it is among them that the jihadis find their recruits.

The post-election questions thus mainly concern how well the resurgent power of the mainstream political parties is channelled through wise leadership not just to get Musharraf vacate the presidential palace, but implement a credible economic policy to sustain people's hope in the new dispensation.

The parties, mainly the PPP with the legacy of the assassinated Benazir Bhutto as its flag and the PML(N) of former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, would have the more difficult task to contain the hold of the extremists on the people.

A recent Time magazine article on Pakistan says that the religious extremists are telling the people that they are seeking to implement God's law or the Sharia that the military or the previous elected regime had failed to do. By playing on the sentiments of the masses, the extremists are positing Sharia against the Constitutional system. The report quotes a 16-year-old woman inmate of the conservative citadel of Lahore, the Red Mosque, who acted against video parlours and cinema houses: "The government point of view is that we challenged the writ of the state; we believe the government is challenging the writ of God."

By positing Sharia against Constitutional law and posing themselves as the champions of the writ of God, the extremists are making it difficult for the moderate middle class Muslim to condemn the jihadis, even though there is a rising tide of resentment against the politics of the suicide bomb. True, the religious parties have lost even in the turbulent North-West Frontier Province, but it is not the beginning of the end of the politics of extremism. Remember, even Benazir Bhutto, while in power, had sought to encourage the terrorist tiger and then ride it. A recent survey in the country has reported that 60 per cent of Pakistanis interviewed said they wanted the Sharia.

The containment of the jihadis and their outgrowths like the Osama bin Laden-led Al Qaeda, is further complicated by the deep-seated feeling across Muslim West Asia against the United States and the public perception that it is the jihadis who are fighting against the hated US and therefore it is a battle for God. Which Muslim would like to be on the other side of this battle for God? The US is seen as anti-Muslim for its support of Israel, its invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq and for its perceived machinations against Iran. Even in India, this perception is widespread among common Muslims. The extremist leadership here too is seeking to ride this anger and set itself as the unchallenged spokespeople for the common but devout Muslims.

In Pakistan, Musharraf was seen as the handmaid of the United States. The jihadis thus have a strong ally in the anti-US sentiments, while the PPP-PML(N) alliance, if it comes about, will need the US support to accelerate development. How the new coalition government would deal with the extremist elements holed up among the turbulent tribes of the North-West areas that the US wants to eliminate, would therefore be watched with concern. As for the US, it cannot allow its hold on a nuclear armed Pakistan to be loosened, precisely for the reason that it is the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons. Even if the new government wants to shake off US' power over Pakistan, Washington cannot afford it. Special US forces are already operating from deep inside Pakistan seeking out key suspects of global terrorist outfits.

The third element in all this is the Pakistan Army. The present Army Chief, General Ashfaq Kayani may declare the neutrality of the armed forces from the housetops, but both PPP leader Asif Ali Zardari and PML(N) leader Nawaz Sharif know that the Army will just not retreat to the barracks for all time to come. For, the entire officer cadre has deep roots in the economy of the country, and enjoys various benefits from it.

When public opinion is against Army interference, the officers would remain within the barracks but wait for an opportunity when the politicians cross the red line.

In 1999, as Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif did that crossing and sought to remove General Musharraf, the then Army Chief, hoping that the Army had lost its shine in the wake of its Kargil misadventure. But it was the Army that had the final say, forcing Sharif to leave the country.

Right now the politicians have a window of opportunity to curb the Army's power in the wake of the widespread revulsion against the Musharraf regime, but how long that window would stay open, remains to be seen.

Courtesy: www.asianage.com, February 28, 2008