Whatever the Government may claim on the price-rise front, the people have lost hope in the present regime. Whether or not the political parties will focus on this phenomenon in electoral battles, the verdict of the people is definitely going to have an impact.

The verdict of the MCD election has wider ramifications. On the surface of it it's a triumph for the BJP in the local polls. However, if one looks at the sequence of recent electoral battles, starting from UP corporation elections to the local body elections in Maharashtra at Mumbai, Nagpur, closely followed by the Assembly elections in Punjab and Uttarakhand, ending with Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, the verdict reflects the national mood.

It may be recalled that in 2004 general elections, no anti-incumbency factor was operative yet the BJP lost three-fourths of urban seats it had won in 1999. It was mainly due to the atmosphere of complacency: "That any way BJP is winning". However, the aforesaid sequence firmly establishes the trend that the BJP is on a winning spree once again. If the same happens in UP's ongoing elections, the political pundits would have to start analysing whether or not the BJP's winning spree could be stopped Fearing this, its opponents bound by anti - BJP plank would be desperate to stay together.

In fact, the sequence of winning started from Bihar and Jharkhand. Next year Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Goa, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh and Delhi State would go to poll. If the present trend continues, it is likely that the BJP may be in most of these States.

It is an old Congress tradition that every electoral success of the party is fully credited to the Gandhi-Nehru dynasty and defeats are passed on to State leadership. See, what is happening at Delhi Chief Minister's residence. Channels are demanding Delhi Pradesh Congress President Rambabu Sharma's resignation. Rambabu Sharma on his part said that nobody including the Central Government can escape blame for this defeat.

The truth is that this is not a State centric phenomenon. This is the national mood and the chief contributory factor being all round failure of Central Government in managing affairs of the country; more particularly failure in curbing the unprecedented price rise. The increased prices of all essential commodities and services are hitting not only the aam admi but everyone, barring perhaps five per cent of the mega rich.

The BJP and its allies are the natural alternative for three reasons. During the BJP lead NDA's regime of six years price-rise was unheard of. Not a single dharana or demonstration in any part of the country can be cited. Economy was well managed. The Congress lead UPA Government on the other hand, has under pressure mismanaged the economy. The Left Front's ideological bags weighed heavily on the UPA Government. The series of electoral defeats underlines anger of the people against the present establishment.

In Delhi, the shift of votes from the Congress plus nine per cent over the BJP to minus nine per cent this time, aggregates to shift of 18 per cent votes from the Congress to the BJP. In the last year's Assembly by-elections a shift of 22 per cent was noted in a constituency comprising of middle and salaried class. That shift remains unchanged. Twelve Congress candidates lost their deposit and over 60 Congress candidates were not even first or the second runner up. Meanwhile, the BSP managed to win 17 of the 272 seats. Most of the analysts of MCD elections have emphatically commented that it was basically the Congress' defeat and not the BJP's victory. This may be factual. It also demonstrated that the BJP and its allies are considered natural alternative to rule.

On price-rise front it looks that tough days are ahead. The aam admi is guided by retail prices of the commodities and services. Price-rise is like a direct tax on him. Inflation is a multi-faceted malice. It bloats the prices and diminishes the purchasing power. It negates gains of increase in income. It enhances interest rates, which in turn affects the cost of production and slows down investment. Price-rise erodes will and capacity to save, for real rate of returns declines and consumption eats away the surplus. It is feared that it may negatively affect the GDP growth.

Our fiscal and economic managers happen to be well known economists but they have failed to manage the economy, particularly on price-rise.

Whatever the Government may claim on the price-rise front, people have lost hope in the present regime. Whether or not the political parties will focus on this phenomenon in electoral battles, the verdict of the people is definitely going to have an impact. It does not matter if the rate of inflation goes up or down by a few decimal points.

The direction adopted by the present Government flows towards high cost of living with low income. It will become increasingly unbearable for the aam admi to make both ends meet.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, April 15, 2007