The elections in UP are more than half-way through but three crucial phases of the election are still awaited. If one goes by trends thrown by exit-polls, which in are in a state of confusion themselves, each exit poll gives different picture. If we see the exit poll conducted by all the channels, one can't discern a trend other than the fall of SP's performance which is a known fact, exit poll or no exit poll.

Political assessment plus "exit poll wisdom" can be concluded in few words. The Congress is in the fourth position and the SP in the third. There is a fight between the BJP and the BSP for the first place. However, majority mark is likely to elude both of them. The voter in UP may not give a clear mandate to any party. Hardened position of political parties and frozen character of vote-bank is likely to pave the constitutional way for President's rule, that means Governor's rule. This means that the Congress will rule by proxy. If this happens the situation will worsen in UP. Alternatively, the Congress would like to participate in the Government, if the BSP number is sufficient and when supplemented by the Congress numbers it reaches the majority mark. Off late both these parties have been soft-peddling each other during the election campaign. That may tantamount to betrayal of voters by the BSP. If the BJP emerges as number one party it would give a big boost to its ongoing uninterrupted emergence process.

In the current election campaign ground is being once again prepared for the birth of an elusive Third Front. Perspective players of the Third Front gathered to address a rally. The AIADMK leader, Jayalalitha, the TDP supremo Chandrababu Naidu, the AILD leader, Om Prakash Chautala, the SP president of Karnataka, S Bangarappa, the AGP leader, Brindaban Goswami addressed the rally alongwith Mulayam Singh and Amar Singh. The Third Front has been living on hope since the days of NT Ramarao, veteran actor turned politician, but this dream has never been realised. The decline and decay of the Congress has provided space for the Third Front. They are opposed to the Congress and averse to the BJP.

Last year Leftists were flirting with Mulayam Singh in search of allies for the Third Front. At present Mulayam Singh needs a political shield to save his skin in the likely case of him losing in UP. It may be recalled that a few months back when the Central Government was bent upon imposing President's rule in UP, it was only the Left, which had saved him. Given the local political peculiarities of the State and compulsions of Marxist mantra, the Third Front is destined to be a phenomenon in waiting.

After the UP elections, central politics may see re-alignment of the political forces. The UP elections' third contribution would be that of having an impact on the Presidential elections scheduled for July. A momentum is gathering, not only in the political circles and general public but also among kids in the age group of 12-13 years, in favour of continuing President APJ Kalam for another term.

Probably, he has "ignited" the young minds for accepting the challenges of 21st century. Opinion polls conducted by newspapers say that 80-90 per cent people want APJ Kalam to be given a second term. I have never seen such unanimity for a non-politician President. His popularity among the students can never be realised unless one witnesses Rashtrapati Bhawan gatherings where he meets streams of students coming to Delhi from all over the country.

Whatever may be the results of UP elections, voting strength of the Congress for the Presidential elections is not going to get any noticeable boost. The BJP, the SP and the RJD are already committed to President Kalam, Mayawati would like to be with a Muslim President, not for genuine reasons, but to increase her Muslim support base. For a President hailing from Tamil Nadu, contending state political parties and other smaller groups, would unhesitatingly support President Kalam. I do not think that any of the UPA constituent would go against him.

The Congress has a voting strength of around two lakh. It may have big reservation for APJ Kalam for obvious reasons. The Congress and its Left allies may together count for around four lakh votes. It may be recalled that last time the Leftists fought against APJ Kalam. Total votes of the electoral college are enough to defeat any other candidate either sponsored by the Congress or the Leftists or both of them. The support of the second term for President APJ Kalam may go on increasing. His conditionality of unanimity is the only hurdle. But I don't think Sonia Gandhi would forget or forgive APJ Kalam, the way he blocked her Prime Ministerial ambitions.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, April 29, 2007