Rapid changes at the apex level in Pakistan have once again brought about political upheavals. However, the events are yet to unfold with January 2008 scheduled for parliamentary election which are going to be held under Emergency Rule as per present indications.

Two exiled former Prime Ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif are sworn enemies. Now they have come together to issue a statement that Bhutto's People's Party of Pakistan and Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League would boycott the proposed election if Emergency is not lifted and free and fair elections not guaranteed.

There are other demands like reinstatement of sacked Chief Justice of Supreme Court and other judges and unshackling the media.

Under US pressure, Musharraf has shed his uniform to become the President for the next five years. He continues to be the repository of all Governmental powers but he is losing ground. He did not want Bhutto or Sharif to be in Pakistan. Despite his best efforts to stop their entry both of them are there. Musharraf did not want to shed his uniform but he had to. The two main players in the Pakistan politics had been trying hard to return to Pakistan and actively involve themselves in the country's politics. Musharraf buckled under US pressure to accept them.

Now that both these leaders have teamed up to press for lifting of Emergency and holding free and fair elections, it seems that Musharraf will have to concede these demands also. If elections are held after fulfilling the demands, no leader or party is likely to get a majority. During Musharraf's incumbency, the political map of Pakistan has undergone a change. He has eroded quite a bit of the support base of both Bhutto and Sharif. Now Benazir has started campaigning in NWFP. This is a shrewd move to recapture her pashtoon ground. This area is dominate by Al-Qaeda and Taliban outfits. By this move she has demonstrated her physical courage. Sindh may by and large go Benazir's way and she may get a little bit of Punjab also. The Punjabis would provide political fodder for Sharif. Muttaihada Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) is in power in NWFP and Baluchistan. The third power is likely to become important in the post-election scenario.

Whatever may be the shape of the ruling groups after the election, Pakistan has always had two big power poles, the US and Pakistan Army. General Kiyani, the newly appointed Army Chief, is US' choice and not Musharraf's, though he had appointed him. The Pentagon has groomed Kiyani from his earlier ranks. The US feels that it can safely repose confidence in him. Of late, the US has been worrying over rising temperatures, political as well as jehadi terrorism, in Pakistan.

Musharraf spoke candidly on November 30, 2007 on ABC channel. He said: "The West must share the blame for Pakistan's current political crisis and Pakistan alone is not responsible for any failure of the US' war on terror." He faulted the US for its inconsistent support. For 30 years, the US turned a blind eye towards terrorism until 9/11. Describing the US and Pakistan's support to Mujahideen in Afghanistan against Soviet Union, Musharraf said, "we launched a jehad together".

Meanwhile, a small group of US military experts and Intelligence officers assembled in Washington to explore war game strategies for securing Pakistan's nuclear arsenals, if the country's political institutions and military safeguards fall apart. The US has conducted several such exercises in recently examining various options and scenarios including as to how many troops may be required for military intervention in Pakistan.

President Bush has declared that if they get definite information of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, the US Army will directly intervene. Pak foreign affairs spokesperson meekly reacted by saying that Pakistan is capable of protecting its sovereignty and its nuclear weapons are fully secured under a clear command. It ultimately concluded that there are no palatable ways to ensure the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenals. Military intervention would ruin US-Pakistan cooperation.

In the last two years, the US has understood Musharraf's strategy to deal with it without doing much on war on terror front. That ultimately went against him. The US handled Musharraf in a way that seems to benefit the US. So far as Pakistan is concerned, it is facing worst-ever political crisis. If Musharraf does not lift Emergency and conduct election, people of Pakistan will agitate. Confrontation and bloodshed is feared. Ushering in democracy with least of the modicum may look very difficult. If disheartened Musharraf defies US, General Kiyani is there to watch US interests. And Pakistan will rot as a failed State.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, December 09, 2007