Assembly elections in UP have always been important for it is the most populous State in India. It also has a great political significance. It is preceded by important corporation elections in UP and Maharashtra and Assembly elections of Punjab and Uttarakhand.

The electoral trend has proved that anti-incumbency factor is far greater against the Congress and its leader Sonia Gandhi rather than the State. In other words, the debacle the Congress suffered in Punjab and Uttarakhand is not as much against the Chief Ministers Amarinder Singh and ND Tiwari as against Sonia Gandhi and her establishment at the Centre.

According to her inflation is the culprit for this debacle. During whole of the NDA regime price-rise and inflation were totally absent in the political parlance. Not a single noteworthy dharna, rally, bandh or strike was held. Present price-rise is not inflation in usual terms. It is due to shortage of the essential commodities. This has caused drastic cut in the support base of the ruling alliance in general and the Congress in particular.

Congress' performance is going to have repercussions in the future, including the general elections. Not that Assembly elections of Gujarat, Goa, Himachal are not important. But I don't think any of these elections are going to deviate from the pattern of electoral battles established as of today by preceding elections. It is in this context that UP Assembly elections should be seen.

As far the Congress is concerned, the party is entering the electoral field just to be counted as 'was also there'. The party was anxious to impose President's rule in the State for it felt that it would improve its tally under Governor's pleasure. But it could not muster enough courage to defy CPM's veto in the matter. Three main players in the arena may be counted with all seriousness - SP, BSP and BJP. Ruling party and its leader, Mulayam Singh, is the master of electoral management. His main strength is caste equations, money and muscle powers with the added strength of manipulating the official machinery openly.

Despite all these tactics he could not manage to get magic majority number on his own with the exception of earlier era when he was a part of larger outfit. The BSP is a matching force on all fronts - be it caste combination or the use of money or muscle power. This time, however, Mayawati wouldn't have officials playing to her tune. But she still has a plus point - flexibility in ticket distribution and transferability of its support base to a leader of any caste to get him/ her elected.

It is in this background, till a year back, two possible Chief Ministers were being discussed - who would be a lesser evil. The records of both as CMs is known to all. In that phase the BJP was not in the reckoning. Journalists would say: It would be a feat if the BJP is able to retain half of its present strength. The image of the party suffered severe beating on several issues. The turning point was the result of UP Mahanagar Palikas, it took the top BJP leaders by surprise.

Then came the results from Maharastra including those of Mumbai and Nagpur. The BJP-Shiva Sena combination was not in the pink of health. It was not to the credit of its leaders but the electorates. Then came Punjab and Uttarakhand. The BJP had never performed like this in all its history. In Uttarakhand also it returned to power. Much talked of despondency and demoralisation in the BJP vanished.

The party is back again. The mood of the voter is surging towards it. Interesting electoral battle lies ahead. Many of its leaders at the State level hope to reach majority mark. It is for this, Apna Dal having influence in a few districts and trusted ally JD(U) are being seen as allies. As far as Chief Ministerial candidate is concerned neither Mulayam Singh nor Mayawati can match the stature of Kalyan Singh.

This might make the BJP a number one party. Though in my opinion it might not be a majority party. If ticket distribution is attempted with serious strategic targets then the results may be surprising. But if the formulas like sitting-getting is adhered to, there is no hope. Leaders should understand the apathy of the people, for at least 50 per cent of the sitting MLA's may be defeated.

We have seen how Narendra Modi denied ticket to all the outgoing members of corporations in three Mahapalikas and winning upto 80 per cent of the seats. In others he used a mixed strategy stunning results.

Resource crunch may be yet another factor where the BJP won't be able to match the SP or the BSP. But using the available resources judiciously and taking strategic view it can manage. In a scenario like this Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections would be a turning point in the Indian politics, after the completion of three years of the UPA regime.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, March 11, 2007