Battle royale for election of the President of India is scheduled in July 2007. If the present President continues on the post, he would be the second such President in the history of India. For till now Dr Rajendra Prasad had been the one and only who occupied the position for 12 years. When Dr Rajendra Prasad was elected President for two consecutive terms, those were the days of electoral dominance of Congress party and the Opposition did not matter. But in today's coalition era, it is different.

President is elected from electoral college, consisting MPs and members of Legislative Assembly and Councils of all States. Weightage of their votes is calculated on the basis of strength of respective State's voters. After elections in Punjab and Uttaranchal, party-wise voting strength of the electoral college is as follows: NDA- 3,92,780, UPA 38,1014 and for others 261785. This figure includes all MPs, MLAs and other eligible voters.

The present incumbent of Rasthrapati Bhawan, Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, was elected almost unanimously with about 90 per cent of the votes polled in his favour. The other candidate Ms Lakshmi Sehgal put up by Left Parties got about 10 per cent votes only. However, the Left parties clarified that they did not want to vote with communal parties (read BJP- Shiv Sena) and that they have nothing against Dr Kalam, being elected President.

A number of surveys have been conducted, which show that over 90 per cent people want Dr Kalam to continue. As far as the BJP and NDA are concerned, they have made their stand clear by stating that they want Dr Kalam elected again. The leader Opposition LK Advani and BJP President Rajnath Singh met Dr Kalam and assured him of their support. As per voting strength and re-alignment of forces, victory of Dr Kalam appears a foregone conclusion. But the response given by Dr Kalam to BJP leaders was laden with a big 'If': I will contest only as a unanimous choice. It is generally understood that what Dr Kalam meant was that he would only contest if Congress too supports his candidature.

Given the background, that Sonia Gandhi, after getting elected leader of Congress parliamentary party and avowed support of UPA constituents and others, went to President for fixing date of her oath taking ceremony. The President's response was the second biggest disappointment to her. The first being when after her declaration claiming support of 273 Lok Sabha MPs in 1999 she could not materialise her elevation to Prime Ministership.

On both the occasions, the question of her being a bonafide citizen of India stared at her. The stamp of being a foreign born continued to hound her. In the backdrop her support to Dr Kalam for a second term appears unlikely, unless a situation of defeat of Congress lead combinations' candidate becomes absolutely certain which the combine would like to avoid at this crucial phase of Indian political-turmoil. Already, symptoms of Congress eclipse have surfaced not only in Punjab and Uttaranchal but elsewhere too.

The way he has conducted his tenure, President APJ Abdul Kalam attained unprecedented height and stature. Only a few days back he had a programme to visit Faridabad. A teenager sent an e-mail to him saying that the timing of his visit would disturb him in his exams. The President showed remarkable sensitiveness and saw to it that his route did not disturb the students. Throughout his tenure he remained darling of the students. He opened the institution of President for the masses. Whosoever wanted to meet him was given due audience.

Yet when elections are announced, ambitions of politicians fly high. Not that there is any dearth of people of high-calibre eligible to occupy the high post of the President. At least two serious contenders are Lok Sabha Speaker Somnath Chatterjee and Vice President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat. CPM may like to make hay when the sun shines.

So far as Vice-President Bhairon Singh Shekhawat is concerned, if conditionalities of Dr Kalam persist, Shekhawat would be NDA's candidate for the coveted post. Shekhawat seems quite sure of getting support from SP, NCP and others. Friends of the Vice President may also try to rope in a number of other parties and individuals in his support.

As far as Dr Kalam, a non-partisan person, is concerned, he may get votes belonging to all the camps. He would also get support of SP, NCP, and Tamil parties in particular. That means his candidature would garner at least 1/3rd votes from UPA and others, apart from NDA. Meanwhile, Congress may unwillingly opt for Somnath Chatterjee with an understanding that its candidate Sushil Kumar Shinde may be elected Vice-President. Till Congress decides, speculations may take rounds.

With his conditionalities intact, the vision man of 2020 may not get the second term.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, March 23, 2007