The first-ever BJP-led Government has been installed in the South -- that is how the oath taking ceremony of Chief Minister, Yeddyurappa was described.

The statement reminds us of the cliche that the BJP or its earlier avatar Jan Sangh was a North Indian party and that the BJP did not exist in the South and, thus, it is not a national party.

The myth of a North-South divide has been consistently played upon for decades. I don't know how this artificially created psychological barrier works at the ground level. But it does create a lacuna. Conscious of this threat, the BJP workers in Bangalore thronged the Vidhan Sabha.

The photographs speak for the fervour of the people. The support base of the party on that particular day was evident. I recall that a decade ago, the BJP got 29 per cent votes in the 1996 Lok Sabha poll. Large contingents of Ram bhaktas repeatedly gathered at Ayodhya for kar seva.

During the Jan Sangh days, a random victory in several municipal corporations in Karnataka was duly registered. In the decades following it, the BJP won several constituency seats in the Assembly. Its strength increased noticeably and Chief Minister Ram Krishna Hegde was dependant upon the BJP for outside support. All this was due to the hard work of the party workers, sympathetic people and organisations.

A crucial factor contributing to the rise of the BJP in the State was the fact that LK Advani was kept in a Bangalore jail throughout the Emergency and he developed a special liking for the State. He visited the State several times every year, apart from his 'yatras'.

The contribution of Yeddyurappa, too, can't be discounted. He not only got support of the Lingayats to which he belongs but farmers as a whole.

Naturally, this occasion was a long cherished dream of all concerned. Yet, I think that after the betrayal of JD(S) to honour the power sharing agreement, the BJP should not have accepted its belated support. It would have ridden on a sympathy wave as and when the Assembly election would have been held. But the leadership must have decided the best course of action.

Similarly, I was of the firm opinion that the BJP should not have accepted the challenge of running the Government at the Centre in 1996, 1998 and 1999.

Had it not happened, the BJP could have got better political arithmetic of Lok Sabha members on its own. I am aware that the riddle is inconclusive in nature.

The growth of the BJP in different States has passed through similar phases as that of Karnataka. Be it UP, MP Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Uttaranchal, Himachal, Haryana, Bihar, Jharkhand or Orissa, it has been a story of rise and rise.

First, it was branded a Brahmin-baniya party. It had to show the number of SC/ST seats it won in various elections. Then, the image created by its opponents by labelling it a communal party fell flat in the 1999 Lok Sabha election.

When Mamata Banerjee entered into an alliance with the BJP, she fought the proponents of the communal label lobby by retorting that the party which gets five crore votes can't be termed as communal. The proponents, however, are still clinging to the theory.

In other southern States, to think of BJP being non-existent would be misleading. In Kerala, the BJP's vote base of eight per cent is less than that of the CPM and the Congress but more than any alliance partner of LDF or UDF. In Andhra Pradesh, the BJP support base of 12 per cent is better than Kerala. In Tamil Nadu, it hangs between five to seven per cent. Lakshadweep has a BJP MP. If we count the weightage of national leaders, the party seems much stronger than what its support base indicates.

The BJP expects a quantum jump in the upcoming Gujarat and Himachal Assembly elections. So far as Gujarat is concerned, the media is hyper-active in trying to depict Narendra Modi as a demon. It did so in 2002 too. But the voters delivered their judgement, ripping apart all media assessments.

Even today when one meets a Gujarati anywhere, in India or abroad, he would tell you that Modi will win hands down. On being asked about the BJP rebels factor, Gujarat riots and the high voltage Congress campaign, he will tell you that the voter will not dither from his conviction.

In fact, Gujarat's electoral battle has become a referendum on the leadership of Modi. Modi virtually has no real contender.

The anti-incumbency factor in Himachal Pradesh is insurmountable for the Congress. After these two Assembly elections, political climate at the Centre is likely to be affected. The morale of the Congress and the Left Front seems to be going downhill.

www.dailypioneer.com, November 18, 2007