There is a euphoric atmosphere in Pakistan's political circles. Democracy has won four times earlier, too, only to end in disaster. This time it is different. At least, we in India want democracy in Pakistan to last but, there are suspicions in many thinkers of Pakistan and there are reasons for it. Pakistan has experienced limited but guided democracy for over one-third of its life. There have been periodic directives from the US.

Today, nobody in Pakistan can dare to speak against the US. The political drama which has been enacted in Pakistan during the last six months was strictly in accordance with the US' plan with the sole exception of assassination of Benazir Bhutto. From the beginning, Pakistan has had friendly relations with the US. It has been like a satellite country of the US.

Things would have continued the same way but something happened. President Musharraf sacked the Chief Justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Chaudhry, and several other judges. It happened because Chaudhry declined to oblige Musharraf that he could contest Presidential election in uniform. This was the beginning of a turmoil. The legal fraternity not only supported Chaudhry but started an agitation which has no parallel in Pakistan's history. Chaudhry became a hero. He and several other judges and lawyers were put under house arrest. The anti-Musharraf anger climaxed. This part was not in the script. Otherwise the US' meticulously planned the script, including the Benazir-Musharraf power partnership with Nawaz Sharif thrown in for perfection.

However, elections proved that Musharraf is the most hated person in Pakistan. After the results two antagonistic political parties - PPP and PML(N) - joined hands. A few other parties also joined the alliance to bring in a majority. A compromise candidate, Yousuf Raza Gillani, took oath as Prime Minister. Gillani is a no-nonsense man. This he had proved when he was the Assembly Speaker. The peaceful battle of the legal community succeeded due to media support of private sector.

At this juncture, the euphoria is justified, so is the suspicion as there are contradictions galore. The armed forces have been asked to return to the barracks and all the political affairs are being handled by the new Government. President Musharraf has no work and his staff has been reduced.

He is down but to think that this crafty soldier/politician is out would be wrong. Last week, he said that if he yields to those who are calling for his resignation, the US will attack Pakistan. The US Army in Pakistan is in search of Al-Qaeda and Taliban. His continuance would assure the US.

Only a few days ago, senior military and administrative officers from the US visited Pakistan and met almost all important political and non-political people. One must keep in mind that General Kiyani, the chief of Army, visited the US.

For at least eight years, Pakistan has been described by the US as most trusted friend in its war on terrorism. Even if 9/11 had not happen, it would have been US' trusted friend. Musharraf is a trusted man and they would not allow politicians to humiliate him. This will complicate the matter because people want the reinstatement Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry and other dismissed judges.

Second, Sharif's and Benazir's parties are swarn enemies. There are many controversial issues and running the Government smoothly will not be an easy task. Prime Minister Gillani will have to work under a lot of pressure. Sharif and Zardari are planning to contest by-elections. Why do they want to do so? Suspicious of each other, reasons are not difficult to understand.

Democracy and Islam are incompatible. Either Islam would flourish or democracy. There is no tradition of democracy in Pakistan. NWFP is on the path of a bloody turmoil. Baluchistan is on the road-map of China. Baluch people are angry with Pakistan. The things are hotting up in Afghanistan. Decades ago Pakistan created Taliban for strategic depth. Now that has become the strategy depth of the US. That could further complete the politics of Pakistan.

The new Government has said that their Kashmir policy will not change. As far as their activities are concern only a few days back India's National Security Advisor, MK Narayanan said: "ISI still continues to train terror group and its linkages with terrorist group like Lashker-e-Taiba or Jais-e-Mohammad have not changed; we will continue to engage in confidence building measure; Pakistan continues to acquires missiles and other advanced weapons and its strategies remain India centric; and one of the greatest danger for India is terrorist camps run on Afghanistan boarder by Al-Qaida and Taliban."

Let there be euphoria in Pakistan. India should not lower her guard, especially when Pakistan has started to match up to India when it comes to the fighting machinery of both nations.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, April 13, 2008