Ultimately, Maoists in Nepal have proved in the elections to the Constituent Assembly that power flows from the barrel of the gun. It must be noted that the strength of Royal Nepal Army is 20,000 as against much superior numerical strength of armed Maoists guerrillas and the quality of their arms. The recent elections in Nepal were peaceful but not free from fear.

For a decade, the people of Nepal have suffered non-governmental conscription of innocent young boys and girls. Those who were resourceful escaped conscription of their wards. A few years back I wrote about my personal experience. A stout Nepali girl came to me for a job and I got her employed. The horrifying story narrated by her is still fresh in my mind. The Maoists used to visit her house asking her parents to choose between conscription and ransom money. Ultimately the parents chose to give the Maoists Rs 30,000 and sent the girl to India.

During those days the BBC showed documentary excerpts: "A Nepali Congress Government Minister, Ram Sharan Mahat, has appeared on TV, apparently badly beaten up after winning his constituency. He says the culprits were dozens of members of the Maoists' ex-militia Young Communist League (YCL). Since emerging 18 months ago the YCL has been constantly accused of similar acts of violence, especially during the election campaign, something the UN affirmed. In the worst scenario they could now become a band of crude, state-sponsored enforcers. The Maoists also use old-fashioned propaganda. Allegations of their wrongdoing are brushed aside as "conspiracies". They concentrated much of their insurgency in the schoolroom, forcing children in their hundreds to march off to brainwashing sessions, sometimes for days. Village school teachers were often abducted and killed. The Maoist teacher-training curriculum, witnessed at first hand by the BBC in 2005, included the life of Prachanda and an alphabet of grenades and guns for six-year-olds. To sustain their party during and since the war, they have relied on extortion, demanding food from destitute peasants."

The society which has undergone such a turmoil obviously can't exercise the franchise fearlessly. Thoroughly disillusioned by other political parties and having suspicion of King Gyanendra's hand in the killing of the entire royal family in the gory incident, the people had hardly any other option but to vote the Maoists. No one in Kathmandu and other diplomatic circles believed that the Maoists would win.

The two major parties have already declared that they would have nothing to do with the Maoist until they disband their trained armed cadres. Prachanda and Bhattarai have already declared themselves as President and the Prime Minister. As is well known Maoists are determined to make their armed youth as part of regular Nepal Army.

There has not been noticed any vague or pro-Maoists sentiments prior to elections. Expert observers, diplomats estimated that at best Maoists would stand at No 3 and, therefore, when in the direct elections Maoists won nearly 50 per cent seats, everybody was shocked. King Gyanendra, according to reports, has decided to settle down in India alongwith his big business. Prachanda also tacitly declared his willingness for Gyanendra's honourable exit. Now elections on the basis of proportional representation and nominations by Government are to follow.

What would be the implications for India on Maoists Government coming to power?

First, top Maoists have avowedly declared that they will do away with the peace and friendship treaty signed by India and Nepal in 1950. India and Nepal have a unique relationship. Borders between the two countries are open. Nearly five million Nepalis are living in India. They can occupy any seat of power except top constitutional positions. Second, the ties between the two armies too are exemplary.

Third, Maoists are definitely preparing for red corridor in India comprising Andhra, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, MP, Orissa, Jharkhand and Bihar. At least half a dozen ambushes have taken place in North Bihar during last year.

Hardly a day passes without an attack. To ignore the threat of red corridor in India is ostrich like naivete. Maoists Government in Nepal is a UPA gift to CPM's friends in Nepal.

Prachanda has spoken in favour of capitalism while addressing to business community at Kathmandu. Not surprising. China, Moscow and Buddhadeb Bhattacharya have also spoken in the same vein. Another aspect of the commonality of the DNA is that they all believe in democratic violence and fear induced elections.

If this can be democracy, Maoists are going to be as democratic as the Chinese and as merciful in Nepal as the Chinese are in Tibet. Thanks to the successful failure of the UPA on this front too.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, April 27, 2008