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India's
nuclear dilemma
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by
M.V. Kamath
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The Meghalaya Peoples Human Rights Council (MPHRC) has expressed its fear that the illiterate and semi-literate indigenous Khasi tribals may be forced to move out of their homes and landholdings to be supplanted by technologically advanced communities from outside the state. There seems to be a concerted effort on the part of some countries to place India in as difficult a position as possible on the energy front. The 123 Agreement is just one more effort to blackmail India and to see that its onward path to Great Power status is blocked. Sign the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or face boycott, is the message from the United States and some of its chamchas. In a clear shift from its predecessor's stand, Australia's new government has made it clear that it would not sell uranium to India until Delhi signs the NPT. Last year, the previous Federal Government had come to an understanding with India to sell uranium to it, subject to some strict conditions, among them being an Indian guarantee that the uranium it buys would be used strictly for power generation, even if India was not a signatory to NPT. Now, no doubt, under pressure from Washington, the new Australian government has changed the previous government's stance. Almost simultaneously, some twenty three American organisations have got together to oppose any Indo-US Nuclear deal on grounds that it would "dangerously weaken" non-proliferation efforts. Some joke, that. These organisations probably still have no idea of how successive American Presidents shut their eyes to the proliferation activities of Pakistan. They should read a definitive study on the subject by two well-known American journalists, Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark. As the two put it, "Washington had itself not only turned a blind eye to Pakistan's nuclear bomb projects for decades, but had covered it up for imperative political reasons, even when Islamabad began trading its secret technology". But let that go. They are blind who do not wish to see reality. But the fact is, India requires energy on a massive scale. How is it to acquire that? One way is to import gas from, for example, Iran or Central Asia. Another is to get Nepal to cooperate with India to build a string of hydro power projects with money raised from the market. Considering that a nuclear reactor costs upward of $ 2.5 billion and to generate 35,000 MW which the UPA government says it plans to, would cost some $ 91 billion, concentrating on hydro-electricity makes sense. A third way is to search for oil right within India's own geographic area. Thus, the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) only last August proclaimed that it has discovered four new oil fields in Upper Assam at Mekeypore, Kalyanpur, Panidihing and Disangmukh. At present, ONGC Assam has a recoverable base of 72.8 million metric tonnes and at the current level of production, the life of the reserve can continue for about 54 years. But that is poor consolation. In the final analysis we have to depend on nuclear energy and there's the rub. We don't have access to enough uranium to meet our growing needs. And in the international market, there is still competition. Australia is a good source, but it insists on laying down impossible conditions. Africa comes next and here India has to compete with China which has already zeroed in on Congo, South Africa, Namibia and Nigeria. China is sparing no effort to woo Congo. It recently signed an agreement with the country to build a major highway, a railway, 31 hospitals, 145 health centres and two universities. India has been wooing Nigeria and only recently, Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh paid a visit to the country and signed some agreements. An India entrepreneur has reportedly captured rights for uranium mining but the story is being kept under wraps. Meanwhile Delhi is concentrating on other sources. India is rich in Thorium and does not have to be dependent on other countries, but it has yet to perfect its technology which may take another five years. The Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) technology has been apparently perfected as has been successfully demonstrated by the 500 MW PFBR (Prototype Fast Breed Reactor) currently under construction. According to the Integrated Energy Policy Report put out by the Planning Commission in August 2006, India has succeeded in assimilating the Light Water Reactor (LWR) technology through import and is developing the Advanced Heavy Water Reactor for utilising Thorium by 2020. Actually, Thorium-based reactors are a distinct possibility in India, a point made by Dr. A.P.J. Abdul Kalam in a recent speech in Mangalore. Thorium reactors, he said, will surely take India out of the power crisis. It is not that India does not have its own source of uranium. The Uranium Corporation of India (UCIL) recently announced that it will be investing Rs 2000 crore in uranium mining projects in Andhra Pradesh and Meghalaya, but the stakes involved are high. In the past, uranium was mined only in the Jaduguda area of Singhbhum, Jharkhand but, according to a study in Economic and Political Weekly (December 29, 2007)), outside of the Singhbhum area, Meghalaya is said to have the largest uranium reserve in India. If we are to take the word of the Meghalaya Minister for Mining and Geology, the state has 9.22 million tones of ore and given the quality of ore expected, that should yield about 9,500 tonnes of uranium. Meghalaya is a comparatively tiny state with a geographic area of 22,429 sq kms and a population of 23,18,822 people (2001 Census) but among the people there is no unanimity in the matter of uranium mining for several reasons. One is that in processing the ore, one is faced with the waste that is produced consisting of heavy toxic metals and radio-active materials inhaling which would increase the risk of lung cancer. The point is stressed that uranium mining and milling have extracted a toll on public health the world over and Meghalaya cannot be an exception. Even in the US, it is stated, mining and milling have resulted in increased birth defects, still births and adverse outcomes of pregnancy. Similar reactions have also been apparently observed in mining areas in Spain. Apart from that, the Meghalaya Peoples Human Rights Council (MPHRC) has expressed its fear that the illiterate and semi-literate indigenous Khasi tribals may be forced to move out of their homes and landholdings to be supplanted by technologically advanced communities from outside the state. These are issues that cannot be wished away. How Delhi will ultimately come up with solutions remains to be seen and surely, much will depend upon how far it will succeed in its talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). For the time being, we can only wait and see. Courtesy: Organiser, February 24, 2008 |