After the breakdown of peace talks with the Union government in September 2006, United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) active in the state of Assam intensified its violent activities. The violence reached menacing proportions as the outfit chose Hindi-speaking people as soft targets. It also changed its strategy of hit and run on security forces. In its place, it has now adopted a new strategy of planting bombs in crowded places and killing innocent civilians. This new strategy signifies the moral bankruptcy of ULFA leadership and has been used to spread terror in the state. It also indicates that ULFA is not a spent force and the challenge posed by it needs to be tackled with urgency. The increased violence in the state and the desire of the people to have peace has put the state authorities on the horns of a dilemma. They are not able to clearly decide on a strategy to deal with ULFA. The increase in violence of ULFA has given rise to demand for peace talks from certain quarters. But the state is hesitant to engage ULFA once again in peace talks, keeping in view the disastrous consequences of the last round of peace talks with the People's Consultative group (PCG).

The people of Assam have been once again alienated by the violence perpetrated by ULFA. Leading residents of Guwahati on May 30 participated in a procession to register their anger against the series of bomb explosions by the outfit. Starting from the Guwahati Press Club, the protestors, including writers, journalists, lawyers and social activists, raised slogans "Down with ULFA" and "No to ULFA's sovereign Assam", and paraded through the main thouroughfares of the city. They termed the violence by ULFA as an "invasion" of Assam, and called on all people to oppose their "nefarious designs".

Earlier people of Guwahati also sent a strong message to ULFA by observing a complete shut down on May 28. After these protests ULFA came out with a statement denying its hand in any of the violence. The outfit's self-styled military spokesman Raju Barua said in a written statement said that there should be an independent inquiry to find the "truth". The outfit also denied its involvement in the spurt of extortion. The Assam police however, brushed aside this denial. It viewed it as an old ULFA tactic to wash its hands of any "nefarious incident" once it is faced with public resistance.

ULFA Killing Innocent Assamese
ULFA has created a new trend in the insurgency infested northeast. In the past no indigenous militant outfit has been killing its own people. Manipur is considered to be one of the states worst hit by insurgency, but the insurgent outfits always refrain from triggering off explosions in Imphal town. Similarly, even during its heydays, the NSCN did not trigger off blasts in towns to kill innocents.

ULFA however has been triggering off blasts in busy localities. ULFA is doing this even at the cost of erosion of its mass base. Reports have indicated that a large number of people with criminal records are now joining the outfit. One Jiten Dutta, who was earlier arrested in connection with a criminal case, is now one of the top leaders of the 28 battalion of the ULFA. Similarly, several other top members of the ULFA have criminal records.

ISI using ULFA to trigger blasts
According to Assam police, Pakistani Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) has been providing explosives to ULFA to trigger off blasts in public places. They have also alleged that the militants were acting at the behest of foreign powers. All the explosives provided by the ISI to the ULFA are accounted for and according to information available with the security agencies, at least 20 members of the ULFA were given training in Pakistan in handling of sophisticated explosive devices. Seven of the militants who received training in Pakistan were either killed or arrested, but the rest are still at large. To deal with this problem security agencies are planning to increase their manpower. They are also seeking cooperation of the common people. Their job has been made difficult as ULFA is not hitting any specific target.

Bangladesh Backing ULFA
Increasing incidents of terrorism in Assam have revived the exchange of claims and counter-claims between India and Bangladesh. On May 28, Union Minister of State for Home Sriprakash Jaiswal stated in Jaipur that ULFA is being "nourished" in Bangladesh and Dhaka appears "reluctant or weak to cooperate" with India in taking action against them. He said India has asked Bangladesh to curb the activities of ULFA "but better results are yet to be seen".

Dhaka on its part has once again rejected this charge about ULFA leaders and activists being nourished on Bangladeshi soil. It has repeated the 'principled position of the Bangladesh government, reiterated time and again, that the country does not allow its territory to be used in any activities inimical to the interests of India. There would be no wavering from that stance'. A foreign office spokesperson also expressed 'disappointment' at reports published in a section of Indian newspapers suggesting that ULFA was being nourished in Bangladesh and that its government was not fully cooperative.

Nepal another Safe Haven for ULFA
Meanwhile, some recent arrests have indicated that Nepal is turning out to be the latest sanctuary for ULFA with the outfit forging links with Maoist guerrillas in the neighbouring country. The sensational revelations were made by Ghanakanta Bora and his wife Tulsi, both senior ULFA leaders, who surrendered to army and civil authorities on June 5 in eastern Assam's Tinsukia district. During interrogation the couple revealed to the army that the ULFA have set up some bases in Nepal with the help of Maoist guerrillas and the outfit was preparing to shift a large number of cadres and leaders to the neighbouring country.

Speaking to media on the sidelines of the surrender ceremony Bora said, "We have been in touch with Maoist groups in Nepal and procuring arms, ammunition, and explosives for the ULFA." According to him the ULFA's think-tank decided to set up bases in Nepal after both Myanmar and Bangladesh tightened the noose on Indian separatist camps in their respective countries. The pressure also increased on ULFA because of the full-scale military offensive in Assam.

ULFA suffered another major blow on June 9 when, a commander of the group based in Nepal and responsible for procuring arms and ammunitions was arrested by security forces in Assam's Tinsukia district. Acting on specific intelligence, troops of the 19 Kumaon Regiment apprehended self-styled "second lieutenant" Diwakar Moran while he was travelling from Itanagar to Tinsukia. Moran was number three in the hierarchy of ULFA's 28 battalion, the banned group's main strike force, and was the commander of its "Alfa" company. He is a resident of Mamorani in Tinsukia district and earlier operated in upper Assam, Mizoram, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Bhutan. He was based in Nepal since 2006. During his interrogation, he revealed important information about ULFA's activities in upper Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Myanmar.

Traders Demand President Rule in Assam
The frequent attacks by the ULFA rebels have severely jeopardized business and trade in the State. The rebel group has time and again warned non-Assamese businessmen and labourers of dire consequences if they continued to live in Assam. Business in the famed 'Fancy Bazaar' in Guwahati is experiencing huge losses as customers have deserted the market due to frequent bomb attacks. According to the local merchants association, the market just receives 25 percent of customers of what it used to receive before.

The traders fear that unless a solution is found to this problem not only this market but the whole of Assam will be affected. To avoid this situation, a large number of traders from Assam organized under the aegis of Coordination Committee of Different Trade Associations and Chambers of Commerce staged a demonstration in New Delhi on June 7 seeking an end to the prevailing lawlessness in Assam and a permanent solution to the insurgency problem. The trader's demanded President's Rule and called for harsh method to resolve the problem or opening negotiations with the militant outfits.

The opposition parties are now also using the deteriorating law and order situation to criticize the Congress government in Assam. Former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta has alleged a nexus between ULFA and the Assam government. He urged the Centre to intervene to tackle the deteriorating law and order situation there and to control the security forces directly.

The Assam government had earlier faced a similar allegation from a television channel. The channel had then alleged that a huge sum of money was paid by Congress to the ULFA to get the banned group to withdraw its boycott of the National Games held in Guwahati. The Assam government has now threatened the television channel with a defamation case.

Goswami Attempts to revive peace talks
The deteriorating law and order situation in Assam has prompted Mamoni Raisom Goswami to once again come up with a fresh proposal for talks with ULFA. This time she has made this effort under the aegis of Nagarik Shanti Mancha Asom (NSMA). This group has urged the Prime Minister to take fresh initiative for talks with the outfit. The delegation led by her on its maiden visit to Delhi, however, did not get an enthusiastic welcome, with a dejected Central leadership expressing its reluctance to commit itself. The delegation included advisers Suchibrata Raichoudhury, Dr Arun Goswami and PM Dastidhar, besides general secretary, Syeda Mushpika Begum.

Nonetheless, the Prime Minister's Office did not turn down the request and invited all the six-members for a meeting. At the same time, Union Home Minister made it clear that the ULFA peace process could start only with the Prime Minister's nod. The Central Government is upset at the way the previous peace process floundered and the stepped up violence in the State.

Amidst the toughening of the stand, Nagarik Manch delegation told the Centre to release the five ULFA leaders to facilitate the dialogue process. This time Goswami has conveyed that she has spoken with the four detained leaders including vice chairman, Pradip Gogoi in Guwahati Jail and they have assured their cooperation. She informed that apart from demanding release of the five jailed cadres, delegation has also demanded a response from Government of India on whereabouts of cadres and kin of ULFA men who disappeared during Bhutan Operation in December 2003.

Government Sets Conditions To Resume Talks with ULFA
The Union Government has set three conditions to resume the peace initiative with banned ULFA. The conditions were conveyed to Goswami by National Security Adviser M K Narayanan during their meeting. According to Goswami the Centre wants direct communication from either ULFA chairman Arabinda Rajkhowa or military chief Paresh Barua. The second condition Narayanan conveyed to her is that talks should be held at the presence of emissaries of the either side. Narayanan has also reportedly informed her that if there was any need to contact the jailed leaders (by the ULFA), the Government will facilitate it. Their release however would be considered subsequently.

Conclusion
The arrest of ULFA cadres based in Nepal and its activities on the lines of Jehadi outfits has indicated that its network is wider than expected. Though the governments of Myanmar and to some extent Bangladesh have tightened the noose on ULFA, the camps of this outfit are still intact in these countries. Reports have also indicated that new camps of ULFA have come up in Bhutan, where cadres are being trained. ULFA has changed its strategy for recruiting cadres and is also using criminals. Thus, there has been a spurt in insurgent activities of ULFA. Innocents are being killed and economy of the state is suffering.

Though a peace talk with ULFA can be one of the options to restore peace, the state should also not give the impression that it is taking this decision in panic. Before, going ahead it should ensure that there are no issues which will ultimately lead to a deadlock, as it happened earlier over the issue of 'sovereignty'. There is no point having talks over issues which are 'not negotiable'. The last peace initiative broke down, because of ULFA's unrealistic demands and belligerent posturing. The militants failed to respond even to the army's unilateral ceasefire. Instead, they sought to use the truce to re-group and re-arm themselves. The ethnic insurgency in Assam has now degenerated into a bloody mess. No doubt, the law and order has deteriorated in Assam and it is a reflection of the state government's inability to provide security to the common people.

The problem, it seems, has more to do with the functioning of the unified command that comprises the army, the state police and the paramilitary forces. Interlocutors like Indira Goswami are once again active. It is also their responsibility to convey to the outfit, not to stipulate conditions which will ultimately bring talks to a dead end. The peace talks with ULFA should be considered only with a clear-cut roadmap and with the participation of top ULFA leadership.

(The views expressed by the author are his own. The author can be reached at e-mail anandkrai@yahoo.co.in)

Paper no. 2271

Courtesy: http://www.saag.org/papers23/paper2271.html, June 18, 2007