After February elections in our neighbourhood, the new advent of democracy created a lot of optimism in the otherwise failed State of Pakistan. With the hope for stability, the people of Pakistan voted enthusiastically, specially after removal of chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhary and his colleagues, the lawyer community and other sections of Pak elite valiantly fought the dictatorship of President Pervez Musharraf.

After assassination of its leader Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) got sympathy votes and emerged as the biggest party in the national assembly. Pakistan Muslim League (N) and its exiled leader, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif also won considerable number of seats, second only to PPP. Apart from these two parties other small anti-Musharraf parties too got their share of seats. Musharraf supported party Muslim League (Q) got a big drubbing in the elections. The new alliance of both the national parties, PPP and PML (N) came to power. Since Benazir Bhutto was no more, her husband Asif Ali Zardari took charge of PPP. Though the coalition continues, PML (N) Ministers resigned from the Government, but are still supporting it from outside.

The biggest cementing force of these parties has been their anti-Musharraf stance. The two parties have been sending strong signals and exerting pressure on President Musharraf to quit. They have now decided to impeach Musharraf. This resolve has been strong since last many months. Musharraf somehow managed to become the civilian President of Pakistan for five years with the help of the team of judges appointed by himself. The type of unity among ruling parties for impeachment of Musharraf is highly charged with emotions. Justice Iftikhar Chaudhary and his team were put under house arrest by Musharraf. Though their re-instatement was in Government's agenda, enthusiastic was missing.

A tug of war between Musharraf and coalition partners has started. People are suspicious whether Musharraf would be removed from his post. It was speculated that he may disrupt the process of impeachment, as he has the constitutional authority of dismissing the Government and dissolving the national assembly. Till this week, Musharraf's spokesperson emphatically stated that he is not resigning and there is no truth in the rumours of his leaving the country with a safe passage, leaving family business under the care of his sons. The Prez House betrayed confidence.

The spokesperson of US administration made it clear that it was the internal matter of Pakistan to impeach its President. This factor generated many rumours and uncertainty resulting in an atmosphere of political instability. There was news indicating that henceforth US administration is not taking sides. That President Bush is not picking up telephone calls from Musharraf.

But other news stated that Pakistan's ISI played a double role as Afghan and Pak Taliban got information of American air raids and attacks from NATO forces breaching Pakistan's sovereignty. Pak's Military and the ISI did not confirm the attacks on Taliban inside Pakistan territory, but political leaders openly alleged violation of Pakistan's sovereignty.

In fact a double role was played. Both Army Chief General Kiyani and the ISI chief were trusted persons of Musharraf. They were appointed after OK from US and CIA and this is where ISI scored. Yet another theory was circulating that anger against Musharraf was creating great hatred against US. Musharraf was now a liability.

In the last three days, rumours were dished out in Pak newspapers and TV channels that Musharraf would resign on August 14, the Independence Day of Pakistan, but it was not confirmed from the President House. The unfolding of dramatic events in Pakistan's politics are likely to happen sooner rather than later. Emissaries of different political sources are waiting with all seriousness of the impeachment drive initiated by Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif.

Power centres in Pakistan in the ascending order are President Musharraf, Nawaz Sharif, Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Geelani, ISI, Army and US policy makers. The political forces in Pakistan may dislike US but the country's economy cannot survive without its support. American help is a must. Now it seems that US is trying to decrease Pakistan people's hatred towards it. Howsoever weak and of divided loyalty, President Musharraf has been somewhat trusted ally of US war against terrorism.

The source of rumours of Musharraf's likely resignation was the US and, therefore, its reliability quotient is being rated high. The real party politics of PPP and PML (N) would start after the exit of Musharraf. As for as Pakistan's relations with India are concerned, these are likely to remain the same.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, August 17, 2008