India's politics till the 1960s was unipolar. The Congress was at the centre of ruling political structure. In 1977, it lost power to Janata Party. It was a coalition of four parties, Lok Dal, Jan Sangh, Congress (O) and Congress for Democracy party. The coalition, pretending to be one party, broke down under the pressure of power struggle among Morarji Desai, Chaudhary Charan Singh and Babu Jagjiwan Ram. Ultimately, the Janata Party disintegrated. It was the first failure of a coalition Government.

Earlier coalition experiments were done at the State level but no lessons were learnt from past failures. Till 1998, a variety of experiments were carried out. The outside support factor in VP Singh, Chandra Shekhar, Deve Gowda and IK Gujral Governments caused the death of various coalitions. In all these four experiments, a strange coalition craftsmanship was displayed, mostly by the Left by floating false principles of anti-BJPism, except the first one where BJP withdrew support due to LK Advani's arrest.

The only successful coalition was run by AB Vajpayee, which completed six years with the interlude of Jayalalithaa withdrawing support. The coalition led by the Congress followed. The experiment proved that Indian politics had turned bi-poler. One led by BJP and the other by the Congress. The coalition led by BJP was a huge success. There were many reasons for that. A few are:

• An accommodating PM
• Durable coalition partners
• The central party, BJP, was dominant by numbers in Lok Sabha
• Right from the beginning, success was marked by Pokharan II which gave high stature to India in the whole world
• Confidence generating policy changes and its execution, including construction of golden quadrilateral and futuristic ambitious programmes like connecting major rivers. Roads, communications and other connectivity with visible changes.

By 2004, the NDA Government made a mark for the emergence of India in the international arena. With GDP growth at 8.5 per cent, it was an good coalition. Now, by co-incidence of electoral battle and complacency factor on the part of coalition Government, the NDA missed the mark in 2004 and weaker coalition supported by the Left emerged. This coalition was crafted mainly by the Leftists in the name of anti-BJPism.

Right at the birth bad omen were visible. A cabinet, with the policy of Yes Madam, the real charge was taken over by Sonia Gandhi. The Manmohan Singh cabinet always pleased CPM and its associates. 10 Janpath is the fulcrum of power structure. Railway Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, known best for the fodder scam, and the ilk were to be saved from a number of cases pending in the SC.

The Congress implicitly decided to slide downhill. This Government appointed most unscrupulous Governors. From 1906 to 1947, Congress articulated a high doze of Muslim appeasement. That record of 40 years of appeasement was broken by UPA to manage Muslim support. Withdrawal of POTA, soft-peddling the terrorist attacks were all symptoms of descending coalition. To cap it all, there was an all round failure on economic front, inflation and price rise, falling economic indices resulting in lower rate of growth. After the lapse of four and a half years, this year the GDP growth may fall below 7.5 per cent.

The ascending coalition attained the status of nuclear power. Now under the UPA, due to the US-India nuclear agreement 123, the country is at the verge of loosing nuclear sovereignty. This week's letter of the US President, George W Bush is the testimony of it. This underlines failure of the UPA Govt squarely.

At this point, national media has started discussing about the country's next PM who can be from two poles of Indian politics -- BJP or the Congress. No third party is likely to get more than fifty seats in the Lok Sabha. A number of candidates for Prime Ministership have started flexing muscles either through public pronouncements or preparations. Mayawati has also thrown her hat in the ring after her victory in UP Assembly elections.

Exercises are on to create a Third Front that may never take off. The front sponsor Mulayam Singh Yadav has decided to ally with the Congress in UP. Political circles are talking of the next PM in an extremely fluid political situation. With Chiranjeevi floating a new party in Andhra, nothing can be estimated in the State. Nothing can be said about West Bengal also.

Some kind of estimates can be drawn after Assembly elections of Delhi, Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh. Results of these State elections would make the picture clear and indicative of 2009 General Elections. Also, the results of these States will shape both coalition groups. The Third Front may create some confusion in a few States or assessments about 2009. Although the results of Punjab, Himachal, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Karnataka show in which way the winds are blowing.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, September 07, 2008