Tibet and more tangentially India have emerged as themes in a presidential election that could define Taiwan's future more than any of its predecessors have. As 17.33 million voters queue up to vote on Saturday -- in what is the fourth direct contest for the island-nation's top job since formal democracy was introduced in 1996 -- the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and the resurgent Kuomintang (KMT) are locked in a riveting battle over Taiwan's relationship with China.

The KMT is pushing for closer economic ties, citing Taiwan's fading economic indices and urging the creation of a "common market" with the "Mainland" (as China is called). The DPP is criticising this as the "One China common market", subtly playing on the "One China" slogan of Beijing's Communist leadership.

Says the ebullient Bi-Khim Hsiao, former MP and now spokesperson and "Iron Lady" of the DPP: "It is dangerous to rely on the goodwill of our oppressors for our economic development. We would rather invest elsewhere, such as India."

She sees free trade with China as an invitation to a Trojan horse: "The KMT has not addressed the policy challenges of a common market. The railroad was built in Tibet for economic development. Instead it led to (Han) migration and the destruction of Tibetan identity and culture."

The KMT retorts by terming this a "fear psychosis" that will not reverse the anti-incumbency advantage it has held in the run-up to the election. The most recent opinion polls give the KMT 40 per cent of the popular vote to the DPP's 28 per cent. However, as per Taiwan's elections rules, opinion polls are banned in the final two weeks of the campaign. As such, the entire Tibet drama and its perception as a swing issue has not been tested and quantified.

The divergent positions of the KMT and DPP on China reflect the social support bases of the two parties and make this election crucial for Beijing's security strategists as well. The KMT is the traditional party of the elite -- a former Taiwanese Foreign Minister compared it to the Indian National Congress. It ruled Taiwan from 1949 -- when Chiang Kai-shek fled the Mainland after the Communist takeover -- till 2000.

Backed by the "Mainlanders" -- the name for the post-1949 migrants -- the KMT's strengths are its networks in the military, the civil service, big business and academia. It is dominant in southern Taiwan, particularly in and around the capital city of Taipei.

Two decades after Chiang's death in 1975, Taiwan introduced democracy. It faced a challenge from the DPP, a nativist political grouping of working class people, farmers, small manufacturers and pre-1949 residents of Taiwan. In 2000, helped by a KMT rebel candidate, DPP nominee Chen Shui-bian won a tight three-way election with only 39 per cent of the vote. In 2004, he was re-elected -- amid allegations of staging a mock "assassination attempt" to garner sympathy -- by a noodle-thin 0.29 per cent margin.

The KMT swept to victory in this January's parliamentary election -- it now controls three-fourths of the national legislature -- and is confident the favourable momentum will continue. Its presidential nominee is Ma Ying-jeou, whose movie star looks and former job as Taipei's mayor -- considered the second most high-profile political office in the country -- make him easily recognisable.

His DPP rival, Frank CT Hsieh, is hoping the 3.7 million young voters (aged 20-29) and the 250,000 overseas Taiwanese who have flown down to vote will see him through. Taiwan's youth and its non-resident community in the United States are seen as particularly nationalist and China-sceptic, and could be further galvanised by the unrest in Tibet.

Despite the political rhetoric, Taiwan's links with China are too complex for simple assessment. Seventy per cent of Taiwan's foreign investment goes to China, creating opportunities that the well-heeled, white-collar KMT adherents are primed to exploit. On the other hand, cheap Chinese goods, farm imports and -- if the "one market" concept materialises -- labour inflows directly threaten the DPP's less well-off, rural voters.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, March 22, 2008