Tempers are rising over Tibet. There is agitation in New Delhi at Beijing's decidedly un-diplomatic behaviour and its summoning of the Indian Ambassador well past midnight. The threat to withdraw the Olympic torch relay from India is not just rude, it is completely preposterous.

At the root of it all is China's inability to understand why police forces in India cannot brutally suppress public protests in the manner the Communist regime is inured to. Obviously, Beijing believes the few Tibetan activists who climbed the wall of the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi this past week were somehow aided by local authorities. The limits to what a police posse can achieve in a democratic polity are alien to Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and his colleagues.

Not used to institutional transparency and social accountability, Beijing has no time for coincidences and accidents. To it, every negative action is a pre-determined conspiracy. Examples would be elucidative.

Till a few weeks ago, observers in New Delhi were speaking of the visit of Ms Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of Representatives, in terms of what she may say about Capitol Hill's mood and time-table for the India-United States civil nuclear agreement. Similarly, Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee's trip to Washington, DC, was also being seen through the nuclear deal prism.

Yet, once Ms Pelosi met the Dalai Lama -- as she had always planned to -- and made an unusually strong statement on Tibet -- which the Indian Government had not quite anticipated, China detected an alliance that wasn't. By the time Mr Mukherjee and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stood together at a media briefing and, as was to be expected, took questions on Tibet, China was convinced India had joined a global coalition against it.

Clearly China is rattled by the uprising in Tibet, by the spread of "splittist" tendencies to neighbouring provinces with Tibetan populations and worried this could spiral into a larger problem, even threaten Beijing's authority.

In these circumstances it is easy for India, China's natural competitor, to be smug. Yet, it would be equally important to calibrate and nuance the responses. While China must be told that snarling at the Indian envoy or menacing moves related to the Olympic torch relay are not on, there is no reason to get carried away.

India has many reasons to fear and loathe China. Tibet is not central to this matrix, at least not right now. How do Indian grand strategists see the issue? It is inarguable that if the India-Pakistan war of 1948 had gone another way -- or been allowed to go another way by Jawaharlal Nehru -- if India was in control of the upper reaches of Jammu & Kashmir and of the Northern Areas, if Indian troops patrolled the Karakoram Pass, India would have a different Tibet doctrine.

As it happens, history cannot be re-written. India is not a Central Asian frontline state, has limited stakes in Tibet and, as a conservative regional power, cannot easily welcome adventurist scenario-building in its near neighbourhood. A notionally "free" Tibet -- the abiding dream of New York op-ed writers and Hollywood politicians -- surrounded by a surly China is a non-starter. It can only become a playground for outsiders. It will not ease the external claims on Arunachal Pradesh, as irredentist Tibetans see the Tawang monastery as their preserve.

Indeed, if over the past year China has begun talking tough on Arunachal Pradesh it is not because the State in India's North-East has any historical memory for the Han people, but because the Chinese Government is trying to win favour with Tibetan religious groups and outflank the Dalai Lama. This is not to suggest that Beijing's brutalisation of Lhasa can be countenanced -- but there should be realism as to what can be achieved. Shangri La does not translate to fool's paradise.

As the Indian economy grows and manufacturing matures, China will increasingly seek to block India's legitimate aspirations. In arming India's adversaries and intervening in its domestic politics -- by promoting, for instance, politicians and intellectuals who are antithetical to India's energy security and strategic interests -- China has sent all the wrong signals. Even so, it is crucial not to have these hijacked or overtaken by a Tibetan struggle India has few direct stakes in.

India must understand what is happening in China. As analysts watching the country point out, its economy is overheating, and there is a growing restiveness among the prosperous east coast middle class -- which wants to move from economic freedom to greater political liberty. Pollution and infrastructure crises are staring China in the face.

As the just-released Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific 2008 (UN-ESCAP) puts it, "The country has lost eight million hectares of its arable land -- 6.6 per cent -- to manufacturing and construction in the past decade ... In 2007, the country experienced one of its biggest environmental disasters, with Taihu, the third-largest freshwater lake, affected by toxic algae from the emissions of factories." The recent breakdown of transport facilities following heavy snowing led to the closest China has come to a popular revolt since the anti-inflation protests of 1989 (which culminated in the Tiananmen Square massacre).

Much of this domestic mess is being pushed under the carpet thanks to the Olympics, which the Chinese Government regards as the zenith of its economic modernisation project, and which the Chinese people understandably perceive as a national achievement. That is why an actual boycott of the Games -- as opposed to loose talk of staying from the opening ceremony -- could prove counter-productive. It could unleash the ugly face of Chinese nationalism and push back internal reform by years.

There is, of course, another view. Key Governments and political actors in the West feel China is most vulnerable in the run-up to the Olympics and are glad to have it expend political capital to this end. An opportunity presented itself in September 2007 when Burmese monks revolted against their China-backed military dictators. Tibet is the next pressure point.

Nevertheless, the Games will end on August 24, 2008. The mountain will be off China's head. American companies will continue sourcing products from China; Australia will persist with selling it uranium. Ms Pelosi and President Nicolas Sarkozy will switch to other concerns. The junta will still be in charge of Burma. Tibet will remain in Chinese hands.

This will still be India's backyard. Why should it be left holding the baby?

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, March 28, 2008