If Manmohan Singh's personal image is reasonably unsullied despite his obvious lack of qualification for the position he holds, it is because he is not regarded as a cynical, manipulative politician. In fact, many Congressmen believe he has not grown out of the bureaucratic mindset he inculcated serving the Finance Ministry during the Indira Gandhi era. They also say he has little political foresight, leave alone having a finger on the pulse of the popular mood. All political responses emanating from the Akbar Road headquarters of the Congress party are, therefore, attributed to the occupant of the neighbouring bungalow that bears a Janpath address. So it is intriguing that on something as politically complex as the nuclear Deal, it is the Prime Minister's doggedness that triumphed over the party's collective wisdom.

Congressmen had heaved a sigh of relief when Manmohan Singh appeared to renege on the Deal last October saying at the Hindustan Times Leadership Summit that one had to live with disappointments in life and anyway his was not a single-issue Government. Stating this must have pained the Prime Minister because only a few days before that, in an interview to The Telegraph, he had emphatically dared the Left to pull the plug. Manmohan Singh's U-turn delighted the ruling alliance for none was ready to face elections 18 months ahead of schedule. The Left, overwhelmed by its sense of self-righteousness, made all the expected triumphal noises. Everybody concluded that Sonia Gandhi and her advisors had prevailed upon the Prime Minister and persuaded him to abandon his stubborn commitment to progress the controversial Deal.

What has changed since for Manmohan Singh to resume his determined pursuit? The biggest factor in the fresh turnaround is no doubt the Samajwadi Party's inexplicable somersault from being a vitriolic critic to a contrite standard bearer. Apparently shepherded by a Gandhi family loyalist, currently holding a constitutional office in a State Capital, the Samajwadi Party made this dramatic switch to fill in for the Left.

Although there is some arithmetical logic to a Congress-SP electoral alliance in UP, a shrewd politician like Mulayam Singh knows that neither his nor the Congress's votes are transferable en bloc. So the glib calculation -- SP's 21 percent plus Congress's 12 percent will total 33 percent, enough to push ahead of Mayawati's 30 percent share of UP's popular vote (as of the 2007 Assembly polls) -- could turn out to be dangerously flawed. Certain other compulsions must have preyed on the Samajwadi supremo's mind for him to abandon Ram Manohar Lohia's anti-Congress philosophy, the "progressive" tag acquired through proximity with the Left and also take the risk of alienating a sizeable section of his Muslim support base.

The reasons for Mulayam Singh's desperation may unravel in the next few weeks. But the Congress's doggedness will remain shrouded in mystery. It makes little political sense for the party to get caught up in this issue when bigger problems such as runaway inflation are staring it in the face. To begin with, the Deal is far from an aam aadmi issue; few comprehend it and fewer vocally root for it. Kapil Sibal may have tried to sell nuclear bijli as panacea for aam aadmi's power problems, but at an estimated Rs 9 per unit, nuclear power will be out of the reach even of khaas aadmi. Besides, as we know, even by 2020 barely 7 percent of our energy requirements will be met by nuclear power, that too only if 14 more highly expensive reactors are commissioned by then.

On the other hand, BJP's grassroots logic, that India will not be able to explode any more "atom bombs" may sound facile to the intelligentsia, touches a chord with ordinary people because of its jingoistic strain. Admittedly, curbs on dual-use technology will be lifted, but how will that help the average Indian? Who understands nanotechnology, which is being touted as hugely positive fallout of the Deal? The negatives of the Deal lie not only in its technicalities but even more in its politics.

That explains the widespread scepticism and discomfort with the Government's decision across the political spectrum. Privately, many UPA partners are keeping their fingers crossed about the mounting Muslim unrest. Although it is disgraceful that a party like the CPI(M), which wears secularism on its sleeves and pulls up members for going to mandirs or undertaking Umrah was the first to talk of a Muslim backlash, the fact is that the Deal is getting communalised each passing day. The extent of Muslim discomfort is apparent from the ambivalent stance of UPA Minister E Ahamed's IUML which is a leading member of the Congress-led UDF Government in Kerala. Howsoever regrettable this communalised interpretation of a foreign policy issue and the not-so-subtle attempt to generate a Muslim veto, the Congress must be worried that years of appeasement politics may flounder on the rock of the Deal.

Arguably, in States where a two-party scenario prevails, such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and so on, Muslims may not have too many options since they can hardly be expected to vote for BJP. But elsewhere, latent Muslim anti-Americanism, especially the community's hatred of President Bush, could take its toll on the vote bank of the Congress and its allies such as Lalu Yadav's RJD.

In any case, what does Manmohan Singh hope to achieve in the next few months if his Government survives the Trust Vote in the Lok Sabha on July 22? Encircled by new, demanding allies and harassed by extortionist minor parties, the Prime Minister may yet find some virtues in cohabiting with an ideological bloc of Leftists. Now that the IAEA text has come into the public domain, it is clear that the Big Five's non-proliferation concerns are driving the Deal, not Washington's altruism. In that event, the Congress party could easily have deferred a decision, leaving successor regimes in New Delhi and Washington to dot the i's and cross the t's. The Deal in its current form, with no India-specific safeguards (contrary to the misleading claims made by the UPA's spin doctors) would go even through Barack Obama's hands because of its aggressive non-proliferation content.

Is it then solely Manmohan Singh's misplaced belief in getting into history that explains the Government's determination to push the Deal with such unseemly haste? For a Prime Minister who is unlikely to be remembered appreciatively by future generations, thanks to four years of non-performance, such a motive is understandable. But how did his party supinely submit to his politically unwise gambit? Why are UPA partners going along despite murmuring about the likely electoral consequences? In the coming week, the country will be subject to another shameful bout of horse-trading of MPs as the Congress pulls out all stops to save the Government's tottering edifice. Who has gained from the entire episode? Through gentle pressure and high-voltage persuasion, the Americans have achieved their objective. One must defer to Uncle Sam's formidable skills.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, July 13, 2008