I am no gambler, not even an inveterate pre-Diwali card player who indulges in that ritualistic North Indian pastime but infrequently. But as even a casual participant in teen-patti would know, there are three stages in this rudimentary version of the game. First you deal out cards by rotation, second if you hang on unsurely for some time you can insist on a 'show' by one of the other players and, third, if you realise your have a poorer hand than the other, you 'pack', rather throw down your cards and pack up. In all probability, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh is not a veteran card player either. But his track record in office increasingly resembles the progress of a teen-patti game. Except that it is the "deal" that may force him to "pack" since he has nothing else to "show".

The only thing that his Government has to "show" is crippling inflation. Last week's shocker -- 11.05 per cent -- pushed India back into the dubious league of countries where inflation is in double digits, after 13 long years. Interestingly, Manmohan Singh was Finance Minister when inflation spun out of control and the first securities scam (of Harshad Mehta infamy) happened. And now, "financial wizard" P Chidambaram is at North Block's helm although the same Manmohan Singh presides over the country's economic chaos -- spiralling price rise and collapsing Sensex. In every sphere of economic activity, things have gone from bad to worse. Development, except for spendthrift poverty alleviation schemes, is in reverse gear. Highway construction is at a standstill, manufacturing industry has nosedived; the services sector is in cutback mode, exports are declining albeit largely due to the weak dollar, interest rates are going up sharply putting pressure both on industrial credit off-take and middle class borrowings in terms of housing and vehicle loans.

The Government's own economic mismanagement has been worsened by record international oil prices. Under populist and Left pressure, the Government failed to raise retail prices of fuel in a calibrated way, which caused accumulated surpluses of nationalised oil firms to dwindle sharply leaving little by way of cushion. Instead of facing up to the situation squarely and take the nation into confidence, the Government preferred to act furtively while Congress spokesperson made absurd claims of bringing inflation down "in 15 days"! In comparison, Indira Gandhi's famous description of inflation and corruption being "global phenomena", then derided as escapist and brazen, appeared almost an honest confession.

It is a little weird by conventional political reckoning, but the Prime Minister seems to believe that the panacea to India's current economic ailments is the nuclear deal with the US. Although only a bureaucrat is capable of such delusion, it has to be admitted that in the absence of any worthwhile card in its hand, the Congress may indeed go for a "show" on the basis of the "deal". I can well visualise the rhetorical postures that shall be adopted by the Congress and BJP respectively as elections draw close. If Sonia Gandhi stands by her handpicked PM, the party will be told to volubly claim that India has been freed of the clutches of greedy oil producers and speculators and the country is headed for a Golden Age of unlimited electricity. 'Let nuclear plants work to full capacity and we will give unlimited free power to every farmer' -- this is likely to be Congress's refrain. Never mind that by 2020 nuclear power will supply a meagre 7 per cent of India's energy requirements, that is, if the deal goes through and a few more N-plants are set up. At the projected rate, even by 2050 nuclear power may account for a maximum of 20 per cent of our total electricity needs. But politicians have to sell dreams, howsoever absurd. BJP, on the other hand, is bound to hammer home these statistics and top it up, accusing the Congress of selling-out to the US by signing the CTBT, de facto. 'Congress sold the country's self-esteem by conceding America's demand not to conduct any more Pokhrans. We are now defenceless against China and Pakistan,' BJP will claim with emotional fervour. Needless to add, voters shall be unmoved by the issue. They will vote in accordance with caste and/or pecuniary motivations.

But then, cold electoral logic suggests that "deal, show and pack" in rapid succession is perhaps the Congress's only bet. With industry bodies like Assocham stridently asserting that the Government has lost control over inflation, the Congress would be worried that the figure may touch 15 by next March, especially if the Rain Gods don't deliver while oil speculators continue on the rampage. With not even a "deal" in hand, what does the ruling combine tell the voter? On what ground will they seek a renewed mandate? The regional allies may not have to worry about such complex macro-economic issues but a national party must. So, signing the nuclear deal in the 59th minute past the 11th hour, just in the nick of time for President Bush to push it through Congress, makes eminent sense for the UPA. If the Left can be pressured to hold its hand till the agreement with IAEA on safeguards is signed, then the nuclear deal, as CPM chieftain Prakash Karat has rightly observed, is on auto-pilot.

If the Left withdraws support after the IAEA agreement is initialled, Manmohan Singh can happily volunteer to call early elections. Since there cannot be a gap of more than six months between two sessions of Parliament, a mid-August dissolution can well ensure that polls are pushed to January or early February next year. As it is, the 14th Lok Sabha's tenure ends in May 2009. If the 15th is constituted by February, the Congress, its rapacious regional allies and the Left parties would have extracted about the most that they could have expected out of the surprise result of the 2004 poll. Relinquishing power just three months ahead of schedule is not such as bad deal after all. And then, who knows what kind of Lok Sabha would get thrown up next? Thus, cutting a deal with the US at this point sounds like the Congress party's best hope. If you have to "pack" quickly, which, hopefully, Manmohan Singh has to for India's larger good, a calculated gamble suits his employer, headquartered at 10 Janpath, nicely indeed.

Courtesy: www.dailypioneer.com, June 22, 2008