The business of Intelligences conjures up images of mysterious, perilous activity, shrouded in secrecy, deception and high politics. But only a few can lay claim for knowing its inner workings or dangers. Fewer yet are aware of the back-breaking monotony of sifting through masses of reports to unearth that one vital clue that makes the tapestry of an analysis invaluable to policy makers, diplomats, political leaders, scientists, the media and hundreds of other actors who may not even be remotely aware of being recipients of intelligence inputs.

This book comes at an opportune moment in time, when new dangers and fast moving events are challenging the traditional bastions of the intelligence community. For one, intelligence agencies have come under the glare of public scrutiny as a result of incidents like the 9/11 tragedy in the US, and the Kargil intrusion in India. For another, information gathering has come under the competitive pressure of the information highway which has been making huge strides. The ready availability of 'instant news' and global comment, has shifted the focus from raw intelligence to analysis.

Intelligence apparatuses function as a tool of national security. Their success, therefore, hinges critically on whether the level and type of intelligence gathered by them is what is needed for national security-a simple statement, but by no means a simple task. Not only are the needs of the nation continuously subject to change, but also to shifting priorities. The fIrst step is therefore to understand the primacy of national security concerns in tactical as well as strategic terms. In the words of Sun Tzu, "If you do not know others, and do not know yourself, you will be in danger in every single battle." This advice is not lost upon the author who has opened his study with a critical overview of national security concerns ranging from external concerns to internal challenges including the economic, democratic and administrative systems. He has also taken note of corruption as well as organized crime as national security issues.

It is within this framework that the author deals with the question of the future intelligence and security set up that would be required to deal with these multifaceted challenges. His comments, at times contentious, are the products of careful study and reflection. An important insight is the critical need for unifying available intelligence sources to provide a single analysis and programme of action to the policy makers. The author has brought out the importance of all source analysis in the making of policies.

There has been progress in Intelligence integration by the creation of a Multi Agency Centre, but much remains to be done in terms of information sharing and the concept of an intelligence community. Agencies need to concentrate on upgraded HUMINT and TECHINT resources, and provide for area specialization to facilitate accurate analysis. After all, competent analysis of incoming information is the most vital input that goes into critical intelligence forecasting. In today's age of 'spectacular terrorism', causing huge damage in terms of life and property, the emphasis of intelligence has shifted even more to prevention. Predictive intelligence is, therefore, the need of the hour.

Ultimately, the efficacy of intelligence will depend on the motivation and high morale of the agencies concerned. For this, intelligence has to be recognized as one of the most critical inputs for shaping national security policy. Consumers of intelligence also need to understand the vital importance of clarity in assigning tasks to agencies. Intelligence agencies, on their part, need to inculcate in their juniors a sense of pride in their work, professionalism in their approach, and a cooperative work culture. Intelligence agencies are acquiring a higher proflle and heavier responsibilities, as countries realize that threats are no longer from predictable enemies and sources.

The author has brought out, in a lucid style, the various facets of the fast changing security environment and the role of intelligence in taking suitable measures to protect national interest. I have no doubt that this book would be useful for experts as well as students of national security.

-K.C. Pant

For reasons unknown to me, I have always felt I must do something for my country.  Perhaps this need within drove me towards the Indian Police Service and subsequently I got drawn into the Intelligence Bureau where I was till the end of my career.  In more than one way, the culture of this organisation, which is distinctly unique, has shaped my thinking.  I felt I could have done more for it.  I am, therefore, proud to dedicate this work to it.  A few months ago, an illustrious colleague of mine, R.N.P. Singh, with whom I had very closely brushed shoulders while in service, met me and after explaining the work being done under the aegis of the India First Foundation, came up with a suggestion I should write a book for the Foundation on a theme of my choice.  I was, frankly speaking, stumped.  Soon, thereafter, we happened to discuss the matter with the founder President of the Foundation, Dina Nath Mishra.  He indicated a broad outline of what they expected me to write on and then in no time, I was almost virtually tasked with this assignment!  And that is how this study, with the focus on outlining the intelligence imperatives for facilitating India to attain its due place in the comity of nations, came about. I am indeed immensely grateful to both R.N.P. Singh and Dina Nath Mishra for encouraging and giving me this opportunity.

As I started pondering over how to proceed, I realised how huge the task was and how ill-equipped I was for it.  Thus, started the learning process.  Expertise in different related fields and necessary material to buttress my thoughts were available in books, magazines, newspapers and also on the Internet.  Some of the publications are indeed scholarly works of deep research and practical experience.  I have heavily drawn on some.  I have acknowledged that at all relevant places.  In case there have been some inadvertent omissions, my sincere apology for the same.  All that I have done is to gather information and put together in one place, what to my understanding, is relevant to the appreciation of the task I have undertaken.  I can be held guilty of being biased in the sense I have collected only that which suited the thesis of my presentation – the bright possibility, if not certainty, of India once again emerging on top.  After all, that is a mindset.  As Henry Kissinger is believed to have said, ‘One gets the intelligence one looks for.’ I have at times taken resort to reproducing in extenso from a number of documents and writings, thinking that would satisfy the readers more and help fuller appreciation, without any misreading of the meaning or ambiguity.  Much of these could have been put as annexures but I am afraid annexures are often not read and so I have refrained from doing so.  There has been a preponderance of reference to material from American publications as also to the US context.  That also has been deliberate.  First, American literature on the subject under consideration is both rich and vast and whatever has been included from that has been on the basis of its authenticity and scholarship.  And then, much of the thoughts utilised here is applicable in equal measure to the Indian conditions, at least professionally speaking.  As it will be seen, the literature in India on security or intelligence related issues has also grown and is of high quality.  Efforts have been made to pick from that source as well. 

It has been my privilege to interact with a good number of seniors and other friends, some of whom are still in service, before I could commence writing.  Apart from receiving highly useful guidance from them, this exercise was meant to sort and organise my thoughts.  But for their help and encouragement, it would not have been possible for me to proceed and complete the task I had taken up.  One thing, however, needs to be clarified in this context.  No effort was made to access any classified information and to the best of my ability and consciousness, I have also avoided references to personal experience that could be made out as classified. 

A thought has bothered me considerably.  The study presented here is neither a product of full-blown research nor is it meant to be any kind of a reference nor even as a text book.  It is, however, possible that those in the intelligence fraternity may feel interested in it, at least going by the title of the study, if not by the contents therein.  Efforts have been made to see and interpret developments through the eyes of an intelligence functionary but specifically in the Indian context.  In other words, the study has been India-centric from the beginning to the end.  It is its bias and it is its strength.  I fondly believe that those interested in the current and future security scenario of the country, may find fuel in this study to partially satisfy their thirst.  They can then munch over what solutions or methodology could be found to make sure that India does not falter at a stage when it can make a very genuine and realistic bid to be counted as one of the powers to guide and help geopolitical developments in the international environment.  If some young minds could be ignited to make further serious study in whichever direction thought necessary, I shall consider myself more than amply rewarded.

The study as such, though made in continuity, could technically be said to be divided into three parts.  The first two chapters deal with what we consider the destiny of our country and what we see as its vision.  In the second part, I have tried to analyse the external factors in threat perception for India in the dynamics of international geopolitical environ. I have then covered the variegated nature of the internal security scenario, threatened by a myriad of issues, some internal and some having extra - territorial bearings.  Next, follows a specific discussion on the internal security mechanism with particular thrust on the policing system in India, as it is assessed currently with its strengths and weaknesses.  The security of any country is largely dependent on the strength of its internal security mechanism in all its aspects and hence this particular emphasis.   Thereafter, logically there has been an attempt to see security in the context of the strength of the economy.  A country is, after all, as powerful as its very basic internal economy.  The role and importance of information technology has also been briefly covered in the same context.  A highly relevant aspect in international threat perception is the nuclear dynamics as it is developing.  There is, therefore, a chapter on nuclear dynamics and India’s vulnerabilities, which, as has been brought out by experts, are quite frightening.  Terrorism is now the scourge before all nations. Some aspect of this threat, as seen from the Indian perspective, has been touched upon as a separate chapter.  Cyber terrorism has been covered in it.  One of India’s inner strengths is our strategic location in the Indian Ocean. Maritime security has, therefore, been separately dealt with. 

The third part of the study deals with intelligence as a whole.  It is not a primer on intelligence.  The thrust has been to see how intelligence could be harnessed to help the security of the country.  Economic intelligence could be a separate subject altogether but has been clubbed under the broad heading of intelligence only.  There is now increasing emphasis on open source intelligence and hence some exposition of it has been included.  Then environmental, security, engulfing all communities, has been touched upon both for consideration and reference.  And, finally, some reference has been made to the application of science and technology in matters relating to security and intelligence. 

At the end, I have emphasised on the need to build on our core competencies and inner strengths, pointed out in the course of the study.  I do, however, hope the readers will find some commonality of thoughts and purpose in it.  Good or bad, I stand accountable for all the pitfalls and mistakes and shall keenly look forward to receiving brickbats from readers who go through this attempt at collection, collation and analysis.  I have worked towards a cause –  towards the safety and security of India, now and in the future.

--D.C.Nath

New Delhi
Dated November 4, 2003