The BSP-Congress alliance in UP, spells doom for the Congress and may benefit the BJP, says Dina Nath Mishra.

The BSP-Congress alliance, in Up, for the impending assembly elections is a major event in Indian politics. The acceptance of the dominance of the BSP, in UP, by a Pan-Indian, 110 year-old party - the Congress - that ruled at the Center for four and a half decades is slated to have far reaching consequences.

After 1984, the Congress mass base has been gradually decreasing. This has forced the Congress president Narasimha Rao to accept the position of a junior partner in the new alliance. He has conceded 300 seats to the BSP, merely to get 125 seats for Congress, to contest in UP. The way the Congress was handling the harijan vote bank for decades, gave rise to the BSP slogan - "vote hamara raj tumhara, nahin chalega" (our vote and your rule, won't go together). Kanshi Ram, the BSP supreme, assiduously snatched the harijan votes from the Congress. Today, there are thousands of militant harijans who have marginalized the Congress to the extent that it had to concede supremacy to the BSP in UP.

Kanshi Ram's game plan is very clear. In the recent Lok Sabha elections, despite the fact that he put forward the maximum number of Muslim candidates in UP, the Muslims, by and large, did not vote for the BSP. Instead, they voted for Mulayam Singh's Samajwadi Party. Therefore, Kanshi Ram's top most priority is to marginalize Mulayam Singh Yadav and his Samajwadi Party. He realizes that unless this was achieved, Muslims were not going to vote for the BSP.

Already, the marginalization of the Mandal forces is there for all to see since, the Mandal parties, like the Congress, had resorted to tokenism, instead of participatory democracy, with a balanced involvement of all social forces. The Mandal leaders established de facto Yadav rule in UP and Bihar. This exclusivistic attitude has resulted in their decline. What Kanshi Ram is aiming at, is to give a decisive blow to Mulayam and Mandalism, in UP. If he achieves this, the Muslims would have no option but to opt for the BSP - to defeat the BJP.

Mulayam Singh has always concentrated on UP and has peripheral interest in national politics. He want to remain the most dominant non-BJP power in UP. But, if he had accepted the formula floated by the UF strategists, it would have shattered his dreams. It was envisaged in the formula that the abiding principle of seat distribution should be the performance of parties in various assembly segments, in the recent Lok Sabha elections. UF strategists were very clear that unless both the BSP and SP aligned, along with the other UF partners in UP, the BJP could not be stopped.

In the Lok Sabha elections, SP garnered the largest number of votes in 76 assembly segments and was second in another 136. BSP lead in 58 segments and was number two in 103. JD led in 12 and was second in 23. Congress (T) led in 9 segments and was number two in seven, CPM lead in two and was in the second position in nine segments and the CPI was second in two segments.

This arrangement would have given 212 seats to the SP, to contest, and 161 to BSP. This was not acceptable to Mulayam Singh, also because Kanshi Ram set a condition that Mayawati would be the chief minister of UP, in the event of a victory. A position that Mulayam Singh would like to occupy much more than that of the defense minister at the Union. As a consequence, the UF formula was vetoed by both Kanshi Ram and Mulayam Singh. The formers allergy to the latter was such that he did not want anything to do with SP.

BSP has seen the social contradictions between the tormentors - the Yadavs - and the tormented - the Harijans - to be more apparent during Mulayam Singh's regime. In this context, the UF formula could not have worked. More than one JD leader has expressed hopes that, even after the BSP-Congress alliance, ways could be found to put up a united front against the BJP. But, in my judgment, the UP assembly elections are found to be a three cornered contest. This situation is tailor made to work in favour of the BJP. The fight would be something akin to that of the recent Lok Sabha elections in which the BJP won 52 out of 85 seats and lost 18 seats, which narrow margins.

The BJP increased its vote base and the garnered 36 percent votes. Out of the 425 Assembly segments, it leads in 244 and was second in another 137. The BSP-Congress alliance may work well in a small number of seats, because the erstwhile Congress votes will not be transferred to the BSP. But, the BSP votes may go to the Congress. Most of the eight percent votes, of the Congress are from the forward castes. During the SP-BSP, and BSP rule, the forward castes have had a bad experience. They are bound to remember the BSP slogan, "tilak, taraju aur talwar, inko maro jute char".

Furthermore, as the Congress has conceded to projecting Mayawati as the chief Minister, major chunks of traditional Congress voters are likely to shift to the BJP. As they have seen and compared the regimes of Mulayam Singh, Kalyan Singh, and Mayawati. In the national executive meeting of the BJP, in Bhopal, last week, UP leaders gave their assessment that the party could increase its votes by about five per cent. The situation for the BJP is quite conducive as it could garner the anti establishment votes.

The elections may be relatively clean, as the Congress may not allow the appointment of a Mulayam nominee as the Governor of UP. PM Deve Gowda looks at Mulayam Singh as a liability rather than an asset. Recently, Deve Gowda told a friend that Mulayam Sing had the allegiance of only five MPs, and not 17, as was generally perceived. If the SP were not a constituent of the UF there would have been 12 MPs, of the BSP, in the UF. The effective strength of Mulayam Singh - five - was meaningless, as long as the Congress supported UF, and even if the Congress withdrew, SP's company did not make a difference. Therefore, it is most unlikely that Mulayam should succeed in appointing his protg as Governor of UP.

The most disturbing aspect of the BSP-Congress alliance is the fact that the Congress has aligned with a party, which abuses the father of the nation - Mahatma Gandhi. Rao has entered into the alliance when most of the Congressmen, within and outside the party, are making efforts towards uniting all Congressmen. Rao has taken the initiative for the alliance in order to perpetuate his role in the Congress.

It is a path that guarantees further erosion of the Congress base, throughout the country, as it is the most demoralizing alliance the Congress has ever entered into. It also sends out the signal that the Congress has opted out of the path of recovery, deliberately. If similar alliances, with the BSP, are in the offing, in Madhya Pradesh and elsewhere, the Congress doom is not far away.

Courtesy: Observer, June 28, 1996