Defence specialist's fictional study of the possibilities of Pakistan -China-Bangladesh collaboration to cut-off the North-east from India.

A NOTABLE book that I read recently gives a horrendous insight into the insatiable spirit of revenge that the Pakistani Army brass-especially the ISI-bears towards India. And consequently there is no limit to its determination and conspiracies to dismember India to do exactly what India had done to that country in 1971 by the liberation of Bangladesh. The name of the book is Pakistan Seeks Revenge and God Saves India (1997) by Col. B. Sarkar, VSM (Batra Book Service, 1/6, Bhagat Singh Lane, Gole Market, New Delhi-110 001). Purported to be a fictional account of the Indo-Pak conflicts, past, present and future, it is in all respects a very realistic study except the introduction of a few imaginary names to give it the aura of a fiction. It is an apt mirror of what is happening in the region against us.

In particular there is Captain Sher Nawaz who as a Pakistani soldier had seen the humiliating public scene of the surrender of 93,000 Paki soldiers headed by Gen. Niazi before a jeering Dhaka crowd at Race Course and was burning with the spirit of revenge and scheming against India since then. Repatriated to Pakistan after a few months' imprisonment in India at Sagar, he put his services at the disposal of Gen. Mir Kasim, head of the ISI, and produced plan after plan to disintegrate India to satisfy his vengeful sentiment, which most other ex-prisoners in India were also harbouring.

The implementation of the plan started with boosting of Bhindranwala in Punjab. All help of money and arms was given to him clandestinely. He was to be whisked away to Pakistan on June 10, 1984, after declaration of independence of Khalistan from Darbar Saheb, which was to be followed by its recognision by Pakistan and a few Muslim countries. Sher Nawaz was in Darbar Saheb on June 5 when the Indian forces launched Operation Bluestar. He tried to persuade Bhindranwala to leave with him to Pakistan but the latter was too confident of facing the Indian forces and refused to go. He was killed along with many. So Pakistan's masterstroke of a plot to set up a Khalistan Government in exile failed. It could make no headway despite ten years of insurgency in Punjab.

ISI's next target was Kashmir where militancy went on for ten years with dwindling hope of cutting the State off from India. An important part of the Kashmiri plot was the mushrooming of madrassas, which converted an entire new simple-minded Kashmiri generation into hard core Islamic militants, betraying their own people and exposing them to massacres by acting as Pakistani spies. This too produced no concrete result so that a new target had to be selected. The new hope came after the assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman by some pro-Pakistan colonels and majors and resumption of the training of the anti-India insurgents of North-eastern States in Bangladesh, as East Pakistan used to do earlier. Major Zia-ur-Rahman who followed Mujib as President restarted the training camps for Indian insurgent groups. Khaleda Zia's return to power was very helpful in this respect after the toppling of two military dictators Zia-ur-Rahman and H.M. Ershad. ISI was able to operate again from Bangla soil. Captain Sher Nawaz, now Maj. Gen. Sher Nawaz, was posted as First Secretary in Pakistan embassy in Dhaka. There were frequent military exchanges between the three countries as China too was now co-opted in the new plot to cut off North-eastern States from India by the cutting-off of the narrow Siliguri enclave joining India with Assam. Regular meetings of Bangladesh ex-Army leaders of the leftist political party JSD were held in China. North-eastern guerilla leaders from Assam, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Tripura were taken by Sher Nawaz, in Dhaka. China had active interest in Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim. It started strengthening its logistics, infrastructure and artillary and air bases in Tibet. Bangladesh was helped to raise two new divisions with the help of China and Pakistan. The operation of a regular coup followed by attack on India was to start with the assassination of Begum Hasina Wajed who came to power in September 1996. But the pro-Hasina faction of the Army was able to whisk her away from Bang Bhaban in a burqa substituting a loyal army officer's wife in her place, who died for her. But the rest of the plot continued. The coup was to be staged on September 29, 1998, at 1 a.m. Chinese forces descended into Sikkim and Bhutan via Twang and Walang valleys and Thagla and Wanchu and started descending further in numbers and Bangla army marched towards the Siliguri enclave to jointly capture it. Four squadrons of F-9 Chinese fighter-bombers were sneaked into Bangladesh via Burma. They started bombarding almost every Indian base in North-east. Now Bangladesh declared war against India for depriving it of Ganga and Teesta waters. The scanty Indian forces were taken unawares. There were no reserve troops in the Siliguri enclave but odd regiments in the region were collected. Because most of the operating forces were in Kashmir, and the rest were tied down against insurgents as well as on Chinese borders there was little time to meet the emergency here. The Bangla army advanced to seize the two bridges on the Teesta in Siliguri neck via Cooch Bihar.

But it is here that divine forces come to India's help. There were unprecedented heavy rains, Chinese forces were caught in massive landslides, while their routes of supply from Tibet cut, Bangla forces trapped in swirling flood water, washed away in the dam bursts on the Teesta river. There was heavy loss of men and equipment for them.

Something like what happened in the Kham Karan Sector during the Indo-Pak war of 1965 happens again to save India's prestige. At that time the Core Commander Gen. Harbaksh Singh had flooded the sugarcane fields by cutting off the embankment of canal water channels turning the fields into pools of slush and mud in which the heavy Patton tanks were bogged and became sitting ducks. Their First Armoured Division was trapped and destroyed, forcing Pakistan to sue for peace too soon.

Now again Indian planes started pounding the sadly depleted Bangla troops so that their Divisional Commander Ataur Rahman sued for peace. He was dubbed a traitor by the High Command.

The Indians were magnanimous as usual. They stopped air raids and permitted the surviving Bangla soldiers to safety. The point is that our enemies are too wide awake for us and our defence preparedness has been casual and haphazard. We are taking Bangladesh for granted. Pakistan in itself is too frustrated and needs China's help which is not available in Kashmir. Bangladesh is now a great asset for it. As the writer says, Defence expenditure is considered a liability by our leaders who fail to take long term view of enemy's capability, going by their expressed intentions.

The following extract from the ISI plot prepared by Sher Nawaz gives some idea of enemy designs on North-eastern States, as given in the book:

Pakistan's blueprint for cutting off North-East India

North-East India consists of part of the state of West Bengal, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura and Meghalaya. Most people of the area are isolated from mainland India. There has been very little economic development in the areas. There have been anti-Bengali riots in Assam. Nagas and Mizos have been engaged in armed war of liberation, insurgencies to which Pakistan have provided aid from East Pakistan. There has been considerable infiltration of Muslims into Assam from East Pakistan which has been encouraged by the Government of India for vote-bank politics. The presence of a sizable Muslim population will assist the operations.

China has large territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh and may agree to support the cause.

The area is rich in mineral resources. The area produces 4 million tons of crude oil per year and accounts for half of the tea exports from India. Its loss will be a major loss to India.

It is joined to maintain India by a narrow corridor from Siliguri to Gauhati which is hardly defended at all. This corridor can be severed by China and Bangladesh.

North-East India is considered to be a suitable target for dismembering India. The advantages of this area are:-

a) Least likely hence India is not on its guard. b) The local people want independence. c) India will suffer considerable economic loss. d) A long and vulnerable corridor which can be exploited.

The disadvantage of this target is that:

a) Nothing can be achieved without assistance from China and Bangladesh. b) No political benefit from the events in Pakistan.

Relative Strength: India has a very substantial military force deployed in Kashmir. Pakistan does not have the strength to win a military victory in Kashmir. China is unlikely to be interested in this adventure as it has nothing to gain from it. Even if insurgency could be created in the state and all aid provided, it would still be difficult to annex Kashmir.

India also had a very substantial military force deployed in the North East. However, these forces were mainly in a defensive posture on the Chinese border. The few formations that were spare were deployed for insurgency operations. There were hardly any troops earmarked for the defense of the Siliguri Corridor, particularly oriented towards Bangladesh.

Deductions: 1. Both Kashmir and North East India are viable targets for dismembering India.

2. Loss of North-East India will hurt India more. Hence this should be the priority one target.

3. It will be easier to get China interested into the scheme if North-East is the target. Support of China in the matter is most vital.

4. If we target Kashmir, we should:-

a) Increase the communal divide in the state. This should be by infiltrating the ranks of the religious teachers and school teachers and constant anti-India propaganda with the youth as the target. There is enough unemployment and economic discontent to be exploited. b) Identify potential insurgent leaders from the educational institutions and encourage them to come to Pakistan for training and indocrtination. c) Create and strengthen militancy by providing military and financial aid. d) Intervene militarily at the appropriate time.

5. If we adopt North-East India as the target, we should:

a) Eliminate Sheikh Mujibur Rahman. b) Convert Bangladesh into the Islamic state instead of a secular one after elimination of Mujib. c) Regain political and military influence in Bangladesh. d) Take China into confidence. e) Provide financial aid for infiltration of Muslims into Assam. f) Provide all possible aid to the insurgent in the North East India.

In the light of the above consideration, I would like to have North-East India as the primary target.

Sd/- Captain Sher Nawaz (GSO 3)

Sher Nawaz is killed by an army officer's wife, whom he had raped in 1975. Hasina is back in the saddle after the failed coup. The lesson driven by the writer is that a rival power should not be judged by expressed intentions of peace but future capacity-whether China or East Bengal. It can be a deadly combination.

A special feature of the book is the realistic reconstruction of Sheikh Mujib's assassination and subsequent treatment and rehabilitation of his murderers.

Courtesy: Organiser, March 02, 2003