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INDIA SURGES AHEAD NEWS
October 2003
BUSINESS & ECONOMY
 
India on Japanese Wheels Ranks 2nd in Asia
 

All those who quibble about India's auto muscle, get ready for some surprise. It's no wonder that big wheel Japanese autocos are stepping on the gas in India. Despite China's top gear growth last year, India ranks second in the list of Asian markets where Japanese autocos are present. Going by production figures, India's tally of 403,100 units in 2002 - including cars and commercial vehicles - is second only to Thailand, which has long been a hub for big Japanese carmakers like Honda and Toyota. Also, since the stats don't include motorcycles, where both the Indian market and the Japanese presence is significant, India's real muscle in Japan's Asian sweepstakes is probably bulge bracket. India is followed by Malaysia (378,080 units) and Taiwan (355,679 units) on the Asian list while China, at 315,581 units, comes fifth. Indonesia comes next at 243,627 units with Philippines (53,239 units), Pakistan (23,868 units) and Vietnam (6,250 units) bringing up the rear. The good news is, in car production, India ranks a not-too-distant second at 342,496 units while Malaysia's tally of 363,500 units comes out tops. Taiwan, at 299,130 units is third, while China (261,664 units) and Thailand (145,098 units) rank next.

Courtesy: www.economictimes.com, October 31, 2003

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'If Your Bets are on Retail, India's the Promised Land'
 

China, India and Russia are the most preferred destinations for investment in emerging markets, according to Mark Mobius, MD, Templeton Asset Management. Mobius believes the retailing sector in India is heading for a boom. He would like to invest in manufacturing companies addressing the large domestic market in India and China. According to him, the mortgage industry (like housing finance) is also likely to boom in India in the next few years. He is of the view that the era of multinational companies from the US and the UK is over. "India and China can produce world-class multinational companies," he told ET in an exclusive interview. He said he would prefer putting his money in Indian companies investing in China over American companies. "There is a remarkable change in the attitude of company managements in India. They are laying emphasis on profitability. The future of Indian companies should be global expansion," Mr Mobius said. Regarding the debate on the growth in China and India, Mr Mobius is of the view that the two markets are amazingly similar. He admires Indian managers and says that by and large Indians are better qualified than the Chinese. "China is a homogenous market. India is a place full of diversity. It is a microcosm of the world. Indian managers find their way out of several restrictions imposed by the government. They can perform well in any other market," he added.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 31, 2003

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Oil Firms to Invest Rs 25,000 cr a Year in Exploration
 

State-run oil firms will invest Rs 25,000 crore a year through the 10th Five Year Plan Period (2002-07) in oil and gas exploration, refinery capacity expansion and building pipelines, petroleum secretary B K Chaturvedi said on Wednesday. "In 9th Five Year Plan, Rs 50,000 crore investment was made and in the next five years more than Rs 120,000 crore would be invested," he said at a CII conference. While refiners Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are expanding their Panipat, Mumbai and Vizag refineries respectively, gas firm Gail would be building a 7000-km national gas pipeline grid. Private sector firms like Reliance Industries and Cairn Energy would also be invest close to Rs 4000 crore in bringing gas to shore from their recent finds in Bay of Bengal.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 30, 2003

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Shipping Scrips Rise 50% in 3 Months
 

The scrips of the shipping companies like Shipping Corporation of India, Great Eastern Shipping, Varun Shipping, Essar Shipping and Mercator Lines have seen their prices move up over 50 per cent in the past three months. For the first time in the last five years, the foreign institutional investors have also picked up minority stake in the shipping companies. This boom has been fuelled by the Indian shipping rates which are an all time high due to tonnage charges hardening in the international market. The demand for ships has also been unprecedented following the huge Chinese demand for raw materials like steel, iron ore and coal and high import volumes of grain and other items by the US and the UK. The SCI scrip has gone up by 81 per cent to Rs105.70 from a low of Rs 58.35 per cent, while GE Shipping has appreciated by 50 per cent from a low of Rs 52 to close at Rs 81 on Wednesday. Other shipping scrips like Varun Shipping and Essar Shipping have gained 40 and 71 per cent respectively. The Baltic dry index, which is the bench mark for freight rates on vessels carrying bulk goods, including coal, iron ore and grain, have quadrupled in the past year and have jumped 50 per cent in the past three weeks. The dry bulk earnings of the Capsize vessels have moved up from $30,091 per day as on September 5 2003. to a $43,326 as on October 3, 2003. The earning of the Panamax vessels have gone up to $24,534 per day from $15,943 while the freight rate of Hamax Avg vessels has increased to $16,075 per day from $13,700.

Courtesy: The Asian Age, October 30, 2003

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For Corporate India, the World is Just Not Enough
 

The Indian MNC is here. In case you can't see them clearly, it is because this number is still small. There are a few key drivers of this trend. Most important among these is the changed mindset of company managements. Indian managers are thinking global. They think in terms of global competitiveness, global ranks with respect to capacity or revenue and global market shares. It is not just a megalomaniac Reliance or an aggressive Ranbaxy, even more conservative companies like M&M or BILT are thinking about global sweepstakes. Ranbaxy wants to be amongst the top 5 global generics companies by '12. M&M wants to become a leading global tractor company by '05, while BILT calls itself the 'only Indian company amongst the top 200 paper companies in the world'. About a quarter of the Indian companies export more than 20% of their sales. Currently, about 30 companies have exports more than Rs 500 crore, 80 companies have exports more than Rs 200 crore and about 150 companies have exports more than Rs 100 crore. It is not just IT, BPO, pharmaceutical or textile companies that have large export numbers. Companies making metals, petro-products, engineering goods, auto, auto ancillaries and even television sets are now beginning to export in significant chunks. A move from traded exports to direct (or closer) physical presence is a natural progression. Acquisitions will be another important driver in the evolution of the Indian MNC.

Indian companies are cash rich. There are now about 150 companies with sales more than Rs 1,000 crore. About 30 companies have more than $1 bn in annual sales. 43 companies have more than $1 bn in market cap, while an equal number has annual cash profit of more than Rs 500 crore. About 70 are listed abroad. By '04-05, India may have 5 companies in the Fortune500 list. Reliance's acquisition of FLAG Telecom is a good case. In one stroke, Reliance is now on the global stage in the telecom business. M&M, which didn't want to acquire Punjab Tractors, made a bid (ultimately unsuccessful) to acquire Valtra, a Czech tractor maker. M&M sees itself as a global major in tractors. It already has an assembly plant in the US. Metal companies may also opt for global acquisitions, taking a leaf out of LN Mittal's book. Non-ferrous metals major Sterlite wants to list only on the New York Stock Exchange and be perceived as a global company. One may also see a big acquisition from Tisco. It is reportedly looking at some East European companies closely. Another interesting case is ICICI Bank. Lalita Gupte, ICICI Bank deputy managing director, has the mandate of taking the ICICI brand global. The new entrants to the ranks of MNCs will differ in a very important way from the first few Indian MNCs like Ranbaxy, Essel Propack, Tata Tea, Asian Paints, Hindustan Inks or the Aditya Birla Group. The ones just named are isolated cases with a visionary top management. The new entrants are the result of a wider process of evolution, a more natural progression of increasing size and large-scale change in mindsets.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 27, 2003

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India is World's Largest Producer of Sponge Iron
 

New Delhi: India, for the first time, has emerged as the world's largest producer of sponge iron in 2002, accounting for around 12 per cent of the global output. In 2001, Mexico occupied the numero uno position with India a close second. Mexico has moved down to the third place in 2002 with Iran slipping to the second position, said ICRA Information, Grading and Research Service (Ingres) in its industry flash. Ingres noted that the demand for sponge iron is likely to remain buoyant due to the expected improvement in the capacity utilisation of the secondary steel producers and the shortfall in scrap generation.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 25, 2003

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India Out to Woo Dragon
 

There's more than business on the agenda for the Made in India show to be held this week in China. In what would be the biggest pitch made by the Indian industry in the neighbouring country, the organisers have marked a food festival to give the Chinese a taste of Indian flavour along with a fashion show. The objective is to showcase the strength of the Indian economy and drive home the point that there is more to India than information technology. Industry bigwigs from banking, steel, automobiles, tourism etc will participate in the four-day extravaganza. According to organisers, the idea is to project the changing face of India and highlight strengths in sectors other than IT. The Sino-Indian bilateral trade, which touched $3 billion during the first five months of the calendar year 2003, is growing at the rate of 70%. Indian exports are up by 104% with the balance of trade being in India's favour to the extent of $500 million for the January-May period. Apart from the objective of enhancing trade, the show would provide a platform to explore investment, joint ventures and strategic partnerships.

Courtesy: www.economictimes.com, October 25, 2003

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India Ranks 4th Largest Producer of Fish in World
 

India ranks as the fourth largest producer of fish in the world with the total foreign earnings from the fisheries sector reaching a level of Rs 5,815 crore during 2001-02. The Bihar Chamber of Commerce said that the country was the second largest producer of fresh water fish after China. Recognising the importance of inland fisheries in the overall production of fish, the centre had been implementing a scheme "development of freshwater aquaculture" through the fish farmers` development agencies (FFDAs).

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 25, 2003

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All Eyes Now on India as it Rides the Fast Growth Track
 

A year ago, India was in a national funk over China having surged ahead economically. Now, there is a cautious sense that over time, India could prove the turtle to China 's hare, thanks to its entrepreneurial spirit, its strong higher education system and its democracy. India now has a $500 million trade surplus with China, and Indian companies increasingly see China less as a threat than an opportunity. Indian firms say the advantages of the country's high-skilled, low-cost work force are outweighing the disadvantages imposed by its infrastructure and bureaucracy, and even there see improvement. Ratul Puri, ED, Moser Baer India, which has become the world's third largest producer of recordable media like DVD's and CD's, said his company had recently built the world's largest production site for such devices -1.5 million sq.ft - in Noida. Globally, there is a growing sense of optimism about India 's economic prospects. And, this sentiment is based on strong industry and agriculture, rising domestic and foreign investment and American-style consumer spending by a growing middle class, including the people under age 25 who now make up half the country's population. After growing just 4.3 per cent last year, India 's economy, the second fastest growing in the world, after China , is widely expected to grow close to 7 per cent this year.

The growth of the past decade has put more money in the pockets of an expanding middle class, 250 to 300 million strong, and more choices in front of them. Their appetites are helping to fuel demand-led growth for the first time in decades. India is now the world's fastest growing telecom market, with more than one million new mobile phone subscriptions sold each month. Indians are buying about 10,000 motorcycles a day. Banks are now making $15 billion a year in home loans, with the lowest interest rates in decades helping to spur the spending, building and borrowing. Foreign institutional investors have poured nearly $5 billion into the Indian market this year, already more than six times last year's total. BSE's benchmark sensitive Index has risen by more than 50 per cent since April, hitting a three-year high. Foreign exchange reserves are at a record $90billion. After huffing and puffing in place for eight or nine years, "the train has left the station," CK Prahalad, a professor at the University of Michigan Business School, said of the Indian economy. India is also slowly making a name not just for software exports and service outsourcing, but also as an exporter of autos, auto parts and motorcycles. In addition, a good monsoon is putting income and credit in rural pockets, spurring a run on consumer goods that will only strengthen when the harvest comes in later this year. In some places, the economic transformation is startling. Look at islands of prosperity like Gurgaon, or Bangalore, and you see an India that many Americans - not to speak of Indians - would not recognise. One sign of change is the proliferation of malls. India 's first opened only in 1999, and its second in 2000, according to Harminder Sahni, a principal in KSA Technopak. By the end of next year, it will have almost 150. Of course, truisms about what holds India back have not disappeared. The shortfalls in infrastructure, particularly power and education, are staggering. Twenty-six per cent of Indians still live in poverty, and data suggest inequality is widening even as the poverty rate falls.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 22, 2003

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GJEPC Exports Grow by 13.61% from April to Oct 03
 

Mumbai: India's gems and jewellery exports increased to Rs 22,247.04 crore during April-October 2003, a rise of 13.61 per cent over Rs 20,471.07 crore of the previous year, according to the provisional figures of Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council. Describing it as a remarkable achievement, Sanjay Kothari, chairman of GJEPC said: "In spite of many discouraging factors like drop in exports to a record low of 8 per cent in April due to SARS and Iraq war and fall in the rupee against the dollar, our gem and jewellery exports rallied by 13.61 per cent in dollar terms and 8.68 per cent in rupee terms." The main factor behind the great achievement was the holding of many international exhibitions in the last six months which generated a lot of interest in this sector, he said. He cited the success of India International Jewellery Show 2003 in July and the recently concluded, Jewellery Arabia 2003 in Baharin. The gem and jewellery industry has always been India's leading revenue earner, accounting for 18 per cent of the total exports and also contributing 17 per cent to India's total foreign exchange earnings, Kothari said.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 22, 2003

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World Pleasantly Surprised at India
 

India has taken the world by surprise with its new economic wave. Global enterprises are rediscovering India's strengths, according to a senior World Economic Forum (WEF) official. While this perception has been doing the rounds for some time with feel-good reports from Wall Street, this is the first time the global networking body - which is committed to improving the state of the world- is open about its bullishness on India. ''This is the second shock India has given to the world,'' says Collete Mathur, executive director of the WEF, explaining that this is very similar to the big surprise when India emerged as a knowledge power in the mid-nineties. ''Globally, people are yet to get over that.'' This change is visibly clear in Mathur's body language in stating that the WEF doesn't have to apply that extra push in making global companies participate in the India Economic Summit next month. ''The days of struggle to bring people into the country is over. Global enterprises themselves want to have a relook at India,'' said Mathur. ''India is not poor and a bad student anymore.''

Year 2003 has seen India emerge as influential for global companies into outsourcing, high-end manufacturing, equities and pharma. The WEF said India has strengthened its position at Cancun with other countries like Brazil and China. ''The world has to take into consideration that days of telling others what to do is over,'' Mathur said.

Courtesy: The Times of India, October 20, 2003

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Pharma Exports up 21% in 2003
 

Pharmaceutical exports from India has crossed the five-digit figure in the financial year 2003, clocking exports worth Rs 11,925 crore, according to the directorate-general of commercial intelligence and statistics (DGCIS). It indicated a growth of 21% over exports clocked in the previous year, DGCIS said. The growth rate last year was 11.2% and the higher growth this year was due to increased exports to regulated markets such as the US, Germany, Canada, the UK, Russia, Mexico and Spain. The US market was the most preferred destination for Indian pharma exports, touching Rs 2,023 crore during 2002-03 with an increase of 25% over the previous year. In Asia, China is the leading importer of Indian drugs. It is followed by Vietnam, Japan, Sri Lanka, Singapore, Thailand, Korea, Bangladesh, Nepal and Philippines - together accounting for Rs 100 crore worth of drugs imports from India, DGCIS added.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 20, 2003

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Challenging Task of Holding Huge Forex Reserves
 

The Rapid and unprecedented accumulation of forex reserves by the Reserve Bank of India in recent years has inspired much debate on the criteria to determine the optimum level of reserves to be held and the cost of holding them. The official reserves of $90 billion as on October 10 seem to have crossed the optimal level and Bimal Jalan, the former RBI Governor, officially acknowledged it in a recent speech at the 14th National Assembly of the Forex Association of India. In terms of the basic indicators of adequacy, the current level of reserves appears to be well beyond the conventionally defined limit. In the last fiscal year, the official reserves were equivalent to 17 months of the country's imports and around 90 times its short-term external debt. There is a feeling in some quarters that the reserves will continue to grow and will reach $100 billion by the end of this fiscal.

Courtesy: The Hindu, October 20, 2003

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Ranbaxy sets out to Conquer Global Markets with OD Drugs
 

To leverage its strength in the global antibiotic markets, Indian pharmaceutical giant, Ranbaxy Laboratory Limited is now betting big on the revolutionary OD (once-a-day dosage) antibiotic formulations. The company is planning to go global with this niche segment and has lined up a strategy for phased launch of these formulations and future growth. The formulations that are being considered for launch by Ranbaxy in different markets across the world are its three blockbuster OD formulations in the domestic market --- ciprofloxacin OD (Cifran OD), ofloxacin OD (Zanocin OD) and clarithromycin OD (Crixan OD). For starters, Ranbaxy has planned launch of the OD antibiotic formulations under its own brand in markets where it already has strong presence like China, Brazil, Myanmar, and Cambodia.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 17, 2003

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India not China seen as a Hub for Exports
 

India has been rapidly emerging as an export hub for the MNCs instead of China, feel experts. They believe India's positives far outnumber its ills which is why given an opportunity MNCs would like to have their own set-up at the exports processing zones here. To tap this exports potential of India both government and international bodies like FEMOZA, the world federation for free zones with WTO, UNCTAD etc are supporting setting-up of more Free Trade Zones (FTZs) in India."China is loosing popularity amongst MNC's who are now looking at India for setting up their exports facility," said J Torrent, President FEMOZA. "The Indian economy is growing at a tremendous pace and with a huge population of skilled and cheap labour it has become an ideal destination to set up FTZs," he added. India's stable democracy and consistent economic policies have acted as catalyst in wooing the MNCs to India instead of China feels Torrent.

India scores over China in many other ways one of it is the geographical location and connectivity. India is strategically located all important exports centre like the Gulf countries, East European countries, Asean countries, and the East African countries are in its proximity." India edges out China with its large english speaking population also, this along with infrastructure development will definitely make India an attractive destination for investments," said Torrent. The FTZs offers 100 per cent foreign ownership apart from provision of no income tax, no corporate tax and also 100 per cent redemption of profits to the MNCs.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 16, 2003

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An Elastic Growth
 

India is the world's fourth largest producer of natural rubber. The Rs 12,000-crore Indian Rubber Industry provides direct employment to around 80,000 people, and is a source of indirect employment to nearly three lakh. There are about 6,000 manufacturing units, which produce over 36,000 domestic and industrial end products. The industry also exports goods worth Rs 15,000 crore per year to 80 countries, including the USA and Germany. "Rubber and its products have made a deep impact on our lives. We are the fourth largest consumers of rubber products in the world. Unlike other major rubber producing countries, where the market is export-oriented, India, along with China and Brazil, consumes its entire domestic output for industrial purposes," says an industry expert. Besides the tyre industry, jobs are also available with various rubber-processing units. If we include small scale as well as unorganised sectors, the turnover of the industry crosses Rs 30,000 crore, with lakhs of people employed in it. Research and development is coming up as a major thrust area for rubber technologists as polymer substances are increasingly being used for a host of products like spacecraft, optical fibres, textiles and household utilities.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 15, 2003

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Motown Rejoices a September Well Run
 

Propelled by Maruti, Hyundai and Tata Motors, car sales surged by 12.8% in September '03. Car sales went up for the sixth consecutive month to 56,764 units over 50,292 units in September '02, data released today by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) showed. Sales during April-September '03 grew by a robust 23.7% to 3.19 lakh units from 2.58 lakh cars during the same period last year. Car sales are driving northward on the back of an 8% excise duty reduction in the budget and low-interest loans coupled with a rising disposable income. Bus and truck sales posted a whopping 44.8% rise in September to 23,537 units as both medium and heavy and light commercial vehicles witnessed higher demand.

Sales of these two during the first half of this fiscal jumped by 32% to 1.09 lakh units, primarily due to satisfactory work on the Golden Quadrilateral highway project, the Prime Minister's rural road network, and a spurt in the infrastructure sector. The sale of two-wheelers grew by 15.1% in September to 4.81 lakh units as motorcycles and scooters recorded higher sales. However, mopeds continued to ride into negative territory. Cumulative two-wheeler sales stood higher by 7% at 25.44 lakh units. Scooters and scooterettees, which are witnessing a renewed customer interest, clocked a 13.8% growth in September to 83,349 units. The sale of motorcycles and step-thrus went up by 17.6% to 3.69 lakh units but that of mopeds dived 7% to 28,167 units during the review month.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 14, 2003

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Indian Telecom Growth Story Gets Noticed
 

Far away from the policy and regulatory turmoil in India, the country is increasingly finding mention as a leading telecommunications market in the world. According to statistics released here by the United Nations body, the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the developing world now accounts for 500 million or 46 per cent of all mobile users in the world. Within this, the Indian cellular telephony market currently is showing a high growth rate that is second only to the dominant player, China. While China leads by adding close to 5 million cellular phones every month, India comes next with close to 1.9 million cellphone additions and is followed by Russia at 1.6 million new additions. Africa is also recording huge growth. For India, the overall increase in phones - both fixed and mobile - now means that every one in two persons has access to some sort of phone service. The Indian growth story is getting mentioned repeatedly here at the ITU Telecom World 2003, the quadrennial event that showcases the best of the global telecommunications industry. The ongoing show is quite smaller than the one in 1999, a reflection of the slowdown that has plagued the telecom industry. ITU secretary general Yoshio Utsumi laid emphasis on the fact that despite troubles, massive growth and expansion has been recorded in the past four years. As per the statistics, around 2.5 billion phone lines have been installed all over the world. Of this, more than 1.5 billion phone lines were added over the last four years. That is more lines in four years than what was done in the previous 100 years.

Fixed line phone networks grew by 7.5 per cent per year worldwide (total 1.2 billion), while cellular phone networks grew by 28.3 per cent per year (total 1.33 billion).

Courtesy: Hindustan Times, October 13, 2003

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Gail to Acquire Stakes in Three Egyptian Cos
 

Mumbai: Egypt's gas pipeline network will soon have an Indian touch to it. State-owned Gas Authority of India Ltd (Gail) has decided to make its mark abroad by acquiring minority stakes in Egyptian gas distribution companies. Sources in Gail said the company has signed memoranda of understanding (MoUs) with Fiyum Gas, Nat Gas and Royal Dutch Shell-promoted CNG Gas to acquire stakes in the three companies. The investment in the three companies will be announced shortly, the sources added. While Gail will acquire 19 per cent of CNG Gas, it has decided to buy 10 per cent in Fiyum gas. The equity ownership in Nat Gas will be decided shortly, the sources said. The three companies are gas distribution companies much like Indraprastha Gas in Delhi and Mahanagar Gas in Mumbai.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 10, 2003

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Indian Cos Fight for Nepal's Mobile Market
 

Four Indian companies and their Nepalese partners are in the fray for a share in Nepal's mobile telephone market but the winner seems to be dragging its feet after hitting the jackpot. India's Modi Corp group, a holding company of India's B K Modi Group, in partnership with Nepal's leading business house, the Khetan group became the first private player to provide mobile telephone services in Nepal after the government decided to liberalise its economic policy and open several sectors in the 1990s. In March 2000, having decided to invite private players, the government invited tenders. While 21 companies bought the documents, ranging from firms as diverse as a South African firm and a Lebanese organisation, eight submitted the completed applications by June 2000. They were dominated by Indian bidders who formed half the number.

Courtesy: The Statesman, October 10, 2003

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Look East: Delhi, Bangkok Ink Trade Pact
 

Among the many firsts that Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's visit here is registering, India and Thailand on Thursday inked a Framework Agreement for establishing a bilateral Free Trade Area (FTA). The first such bilateral agreement for India outside South Asia, this came a day after India signed a similar agreement with the ASEAN in Bali. Prime Minister Vajpayee has sought to hold up the India-Thailand FTA as a model of trade cooperation. South Asia would do well to follow. On the Indo-Thai agreement, Mr Vajpayee said: "I am sure that FTA will provide a new stimulus to our trade and economic cooperation. Prepared after six meetings of a joint negotiating group, the India-Thailand Framework Agreement provides for an FTA in goods, to commence from 2010, and an FTA in services and investment from 2006. The agreement was signed by Commerce and Industry Minister Arun Jaitley and his Thai counterpart Adisai Bhodharamik. From Bali to Bangkok, India has made it apparent that economic diplomacy is the cornerstone of its Look East policy. In his meeting with Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, both during the restricted one-on-one and during delegation level talks, Mr Vajpayee underscored India's desire to engage with Thailand in a comprehensive manner and to double the existing trade exchange of US$ 1 billion to US$ 2 billion by 2005.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 10, 2003

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No Kidding, by '50 India may be No 3 Economy
 

In less than 50 years from now India may be the third largest economy in the world. In fact, the new world order in the middle of the 21st century could end up having China at the top, the US in silver position with India a probable bronze medallist. The new emerging kids from the developing block, Brazil, Russia, India and China or the 'BRICs' as they are being termed look set to be dictators on the world scene. Their combined $ GDP could be higher than the G6 in less than 40 years (at present they are worth less than 15%). According to a recent Global Economics paper by Goldman Sachs, by '25 the BRICs could account for half the size of the G6 and by '39 they could collectively be larger than the G6. Goldman Sachs has made these projections using latest demographic projections and a model of capital accumulation and productivity growth, income per capita and currency movements in these economies till '50.

According to its research, two-thirds of the dollar GDP from the BRICs should come from higher real growth, with the balance through currency appreciation. The BRICs real exchange rates could appreciate by up to 300% over the next 50 years (an average of 2.5% a year). India is identified as the country with the potential to show the fastest growth over the next 30-50 years. Growth could be higher than 5% over the next 30 years and close to 5% as late as '50 if development proceeds on track (note, that is lower than the 8% GDP growth target that the 10th Plan envisages). India's economy according to the research could be larger than Japan's by '32. Yet despite the fast growth and blockbuster rankings individuals in BRICs are still likely to be poorer on an average compared to their peers in the G6 economies by '50.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 10, 2003

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After Software, India Aims to Emerge as Hardware Hub
 

New Delhi: As India's dollar-spinning software sector continues to hog the international spotlight, the nimble-footed domestic IT hardware industry is striving to emerge slowly but steadily as a global manufacturing hub. Industry observers say the Indian electronics hardware industry has the potential to grow 12 times and develop into a $70 billion market by 2010, provided the government and companies take important actions to develop the sector. "If the number of personal computers sold last year is any indication of the size of the market, the industry clocked 2.3 million units in the year ended March 31, 2003, registering a growth of 37 per cent," And the expected growth if undiminished and we would be growing, if not 37 per cent, then at least by 30 per cent in the next couple of years. The profile of the local hardware companies have undergone major changes in recent years with most of the players in the sector now focusing on research and development of new products and in areas of chip designing. In next few years India will make its mark in the hardware sector.

Courtesy: The Economic Times, October 09, 2003

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Monsoon Bonanza: Govt. Expects 8% Growth
 

New Delhi: The Indian economy, the third largest in Asia, is expected to notch up a growth rate of over 6 per cent -- even touch 8 per cent -- in 2003-04 on the back of good rains and the fiscal deficit could be reigned in below the targeted 5.6 per cent of gross domestic product, the government said on Wednesday. "Former RBI Governor (Bimal Jalan) had forecast GDP growth significantly over 6.0 per cent. I repeat, it will be over 6.0 per cent. With good monsoon, I will not be surprised if it is pushed beyond 7.0 per cent and even touch 8.0 per cent," chief economic advisor Ashok Lahiri said.

He said the government's average cost of borrowing in the year to March 2004 was less than 7 per cent. In the first quarter, the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) estimated a GDP growth of 5.7 per cent without factoring the monsoon. With a good monsoon, the kharif crop was buoyant and rabi is also expected to do well, going by the meteorological department's forecast of a prolonged winter. "The revenues are picking up, especially since September, and would pick up in the second half," Lahiri said. The government expenditure too was under control after the introduction of the cash management system of various ministries, he said. The government has also apportioned Rs 28,000 crore for food subsidies. "It was expected to remain within target," Swarup said, adding the larger procurement of foodgrain due to bumper crop would not impact subsidy bill this fiscal. He said the debt swap scheme for states would not result in higher fiscal deficit. On the contrary, it helped the Centre to check fiscal deficit as government will be borrowing less.

Courtesy: www.economictimes.com, October 09, 2003

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India Likely to Achieve 7% Teledensity by December
 

Riding on a high wave of WLL and cellular connections, India is likely to have a teledensity of 7 per cent by December 2003, a year in advance of the New Telecom Policy's 2005 target. This achievement is the likely outcome of growing number of new cellular, WLL as well as land line connections, telecom regulator TRAI said on Tuesday. One crore new telephone connections were added over April-September 2003 in the country, of which 10.20 million were combined cellular and WLL (M) additions. "This is around five times the additions of 2.14 million during the corresponding period last year," a TRAI statement said. But not all the growing numbers came from mobile connections. Basic service operators also roped in 0.02 million new subscribers during the first six months of this fiscal. "This high growth trend is likely to continue," SC Khanna, Chairman of the Association of Basic Telecom Operators said on Tuesday." This is reflected in the additions during September 2003 alone, when around 0.9 million cellular subscribers and 0.82 million WLL (M) subscribers were added," he said. In August, 1.09 million cellular subscribers and 0.68 WLL (M) users were added to the nation's kitty. With this, the combined base of cellular subscribers and WLL(M) subscribers have exceeded 23 millions, though the figures of BSNL and MTNL for September are still awaited. The ABTO also claimed on Tuesday that private basic service operators recorded "an impressive 9.25 lakh increase in subscribers, of which 7 lakh are WLL connections by September 30 this year. Now, if India continues to grow at this rate and adds two million connections a month, India will have a teledensity of 7 per cent by the year end," Mr Khanna said.

Courtesy: The Pioneer, October 08, 2003

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Robust Growth in Cement Demand Forecast - Study
 

Mumbai, October 06: The demand growth of the cement industry over the next five years will be robust enough to absorb 40 million tonnes of greenfield capacity, according to CRIS INFAC's (a subsidiary of CRISIL) new report on the long term outlook for the industry. This capacity addition will translate into an investment of nearly Rs. 13,200 crores and will lead the upturn in capital investments. The increasing cement intensity of GDP, due to investments in housing and roads, will drive consumption to cross 165 million tonnes in 2007-08, from 107 million tonnes in 2002-03. This growth in demand will support capacity additions of up to 50 million tonnes, while maintaining aggregate capacity utilisation at nearly 85 per cent in 2007-08. According to CRIS-INFAC, 85 per cent capacity utilisation is essential for ensuring returns higher than the weighted average cost of capital for the cement industry. With Grasim having gained control of L&T's cement division, the share of the two top groups has increased considerably to 42 per cent. The report says that these two groups will remain way ahead of the other cement players in terms of market share.

Courtesy: The Hindu, October 07, 2003

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India to Diversify Exports to China
 

With China emerging as a top export destination, India is looking at ways to provide more depth and variety to the bilateral trade basket by encouraging auto components, information technology, health care, textiles and tourism sectors to tap the booming Chinese market. According to latest Chinese customs statistics, India-China bilateral trade zoomed to $4.087 billion during the first seven months of this year, registering an impressive growth of 62 per cent over the same period of last year. India's exports to China during January-July amounted to $2.331 billion, up 101 per cent. Mr Bahl said while expressing confidence that the targeted $10 billion in bilateral trade was also "attainable." The CII, which has opened its East Asia office in east.

Courtesy: The Statesman, October 06, 2003

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Foreign Investors Pouring Money Into India
 

Mumbai, October 5: It's 'destination India' for foreign funds. The big bulls are stepping up their Indian operations. For the first time in a decade, investments by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) in the local markets - both equity and debt - during a calendar year has crossed $4 billion mark on Thursday. The investment of $4.021 billion - or Rs 18,865.20 crore - made by FIIs in the current calendar of 2003 is the highest since they were permitted to invest in Indian equities in 1993. The previous record high by FIIs was in 2001 when they invested $2.84 billion (Rs 13,292.70 crore).

The inflow in the month of September is almost equivalent to the entire inflow in 2002. This record investment is the main reason for the 1,600-point jump in Sensex since April this year. "India is one of the major investment destinations of foreign funds in Asia this year," said a fund manager. Reasons for the robust FII inflows: Higher growth in the economy in fiscal 2003-04 (predicted around 6.5 to seven per cent), solid corporate earnings posted by most companies in the first quarter, appreciating rupee and higher than average rainfall in almost all the states. According to data issued by the government, India's economy surged 5.7% in the first quarter of FY 2003-04 from a year earlier, in line with expectations, putting the country on track for its strongest full-year growth in almost three years. The agriculture-driven Indian economy is widely forecast to grow by more than 6-6.5% in the fiscal year, helped by a good monsoon. Growth had shrunk last year to 4.3% from 5.6% the preceding year because of a severe drought.

Courtesy: The Indian Express, October 06, 2003

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Powerpack: How to be Global No 1
 

We cheer Indian companies that hold their own against multinational corporations. But, to the best of my knowledge, only one Indian company is No 1 in the world in its field. It is not Reliance, nor any Tata or Birla company. I wonder how many readers can guess its name: Essel Propack. It belongs to Subhash Chandra. He is famous as the owner of Zee TV, but despite its prominence and glamour, Zee is a global pygmy. By contrast, Essel Propack is world No 1 in laminated tubes, used to package toothpaste, cosmetics,